-Early Brazil safinha corn yields said better than expected
-Corn belt rain ideas remain positive
-Ukraine grain exports off to strong start
-Export sales lackluster for the most part
-USDA reports Monday
-USDA reports new crop soybeans sold to Mexico
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out on Monday at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market nsights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44482. A summary of the trade estimates is on the last page. Good weekend rains remain on tap for much of IA and IL over the weekend, while the GFS and Euro both added rains in the 6-10 day period for much of the belt. Far western areas,
though, look to continue missing out on most activity.
 Brazil’s SLC Agricola said they have been pleasantly surprised by early safrinha corn yields in their key Mato Grosso growing areas, attributing them to the April rains which benefitted the late planted crop. Without providing details, they said they expected to see yields of 95-105 60-kg bags/hectare vs last year’s 122 bags/hectare, but now feel yields could be higher than expected.
 Brazilian ag consultant Datagro estimates the country’s farmers have sold 80% of this year’s expected production vs 91% at this time last year, but in line with average of 79%. They see new crop soybean sales at 19% vs 33% last year and 18% average. Sales of the safrinha corn crop are estimated at 65%, in line with last year’s pace and slightly above 59% average.
 It’s been an impressive start to Ukraine’s 2021/22 exports with 518k tonnes exported in the first nine days of the marketing year vs 216k tonnes during the same period last year and included 333k tonnes of corn and 178k tonnes of wheat. Latest ideas by the ag ministry sees this year’s wheat exports at 20.7 MMT vs 16.6 MMT last year and corn at 30.7 MMT vs 23.0 MMT last year.
 French soft wheat conditions were unchanged last week at 79% g/e, remaining significantly better than last year’s crop at this time of 55% g/e. Harvest is just underway at 1% complete vs last year’s drought-accelerated 10% completion already.
 A wire service poll of EU grain industry participants found the average expectations of the EU-27 all wheat crop is 137.6 MMT, up solidly from last year’s 124.3 MMT, but right in line with the USDA’s current ideas of 137.5 MMT. Adding in the UK brought expectations to 152.6 MMT vs 134.0 MMT last year. he notably higher crop ideas this year, though, are expected to come at a cost with lower quality expected, as well.
ï‚· As a result of their recent tender, Iran bought 130k tonnes of milling wheat for Aug-Sep shipment, believed to be Baltic Sea/German and Black Sea region origin.
ï‚· Pakistan tendered for 500k tonnes of wheat for Aug-Sept shipment.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 229k tonnes of new crop, 2021/22, U.S. soybeans to Mexico this morning.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44485 details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were tepid again at only 173k tonnes (6.8 million bushels) but were in line with market expectations of -100k to +350k tonnes and, more importantly, have averaged 4.8 million bushels/week over the last five weeks, exactly in line with average pace we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. New crop sales were minimal at 198k tonnes (7.8 mil bu) vs expectations of 100-600k tonnes, with no new activity for China.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales last week of 64k tonnes (2.3 mil bu) were within expectations of -100k to +275k tonnes and, while minimal, still remain net positive and on track to reach the USDA’s export projection. New crop sales were quite modest again at only 119k tonnes (4.4 mil bu), with no Chinese activity, vs expectations of 200-500k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales remain quite lackluster with only 291k tonnes (10.7 mil bu) sold last week and, while within market expectations of 200-450k tonnes, ales over the first five weeks of 21/22 have averaged only 11.0 mil bu/week vs last year’s 14.2 million/week.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales remain the stand-out of the group with another solid week of 212k tonnes sold vs expectations of 100-350k tonnes, having averaged 219k tonnes/week over the last 8 weeks vs the “needed” pace of only 54k tonnes/week. The soybean oil export program remains exceptionally weak with net cancellations of 0.4k tonnes reported (0-15k expected), with total combined sales over the last 9 weeks of only 8.7k tonnes vs sales needing to average 11k tonnes/week to reach the USDA’s projection. Another downward revision in the USDA’s SBO export projection appears forthcoming, while the SBM export estimate could use a bump higher.