-Grain markets closed Monday – hard re-open Tuesday morning
-USDA attache sees lower Chinese corn imports than USDA
-USDA attache sees minor increase in Chinese soybean imports
-China corn auction sees limited interest
Grain markets will be closed on Monday for the Independence Day holiday. There is no overnight session Monday night so there will be a hard open Tuesday morning. Emotions remain high regarding western belt rain forecasts so how things look Tuesday morning will be critical to early-week trade action.
 The USDA ag attaché in China sees this year’s corn crop at 272 MMT, above USDA’s current official estimate of 268 MMT and up solidly from last year’s 261 MMT, citing a 2.1 million hectares (5.2 million acre), 6.2%, increase in planted area this year as a result of high prices and government mandates to increase corn acreage. The attaché sees 2021/22 Chinese corn imports at 20.0 MMT vs USDA’s 26.0 MMT assuming, with old crop imports at 28.0 MMT vs USDA’s 26.0 MMT estimate. For reference, China currently has 10.7 MMT of new crop U.S. corn on the books. The attaché sees new crop feed usage at 211 MMT, in line with USDA, and up solidly from this year’s 196 MMT (USDA 206 MMT), with the restocking of hogs contributing to demand, while citing roughly 40 MMT of corn feed demand was displaced in 2020/21 with alternative products. They see industrial demand for corn remaining fairly weak given the high prices as the starch and ethanol industries struggled with profitability over the last year given the high corn prices. The attaché said the starch industry ran at only 62% capacity in May (52% last year), while ethanol ran at a meager 35% capacity in May (45% last year). Total FSI usage in 2021/22 is estimated at 87 MMT by the attaché, unchanged from this year, but 4 MMT higher than USDA’s estimates for both years, citing expected higher pushing of low quality corn out of stocks simply to get it used.
 The USDA ag attaché in China sees 2021/22 total soybean imports at 102 MMT vs USDA’s official 103 MMT estimate and rising only slightly from this year’s 100 MMT. This year’s soybean crop is estimated at 17.5 MMT by the attaché vs USDA’s 19.0 MMT and last year’s 18.5 MMT (USDA 19.6 MMT) with area down due to higher corn acreage. New crop soybean crush is estimated at 100 MMT, same as USDA, and up modestly from this year’s 97.5 MMT (USDA 96.0 MMT). The attaché sees new crop total SBM demand at 78.3 MMT vs USDA’s 78.0 MMT and this year’s 76.2 MMT (USDA 74.8 MMT), while SBO usage is estimated at 18.6 MMT vs USDA’s 18.9 MMT and this year’s 18.2 MMT. New crop rapeseed oil demand is estimated at 8.2 MMT (USDA 8.3 MMT) vs this year’s 8.1 MMT (USDA 8.25 MMT), while new crop palm oil demand is estimated at 6.7 MMT (USDA 7.2 MMT) vs this year’s 6.6 MMT (USDA 6.8 MMT).
 China’s planned auction of 156k tonnes of imported U.S./Ukrainian corn from state reserves saw only 28k tonnes get bought as interest was extremely low with competing feedgrain supplies said to be abundant and buyers unwilling to pay up for corn. Overall demand for corn was said to be weak at the moment, with end users able to wait for cheaper new crop domestic supplies to become available.
 Brazil reported June soybean exports were 11.1 MMT vs 16.4 MMT in May and 12.7 MMT last year, putting marketing year to date (FebJune) exports at 61.1 MMT vs 57.4 MMT last year. Based on the USDA’s 87.5 MMT local marketing year export estimate, they would have 26.4 MMT left to export during July-Jan vs last year’s 24.2 MMT during the same period.
 Earlier in the week, it was reported India lowered the base import tax on crude palm oil imports by 10%, resulting in the total import tax sitting at 30.25%. What wasn’t initially clear at the time, though, was they also made moves to remove all import taxes on refined palm oil products through the end of the year, essentially creating a situation where imported RBD palm oil and olein will be cheaper than crude palm oil, which should result in a sharp increase in refined product imports and the near halt of crude imports, as well as domestic refining of crude palm oil.
 French soft wheat crop conditions were unchanged over the last week at 79% good/excellent and compares to last year’s crop at this time of 56% g/e.