-China reportedly reaffirms Phase 1 commitments – pledges to speed up ag purchases
-Brazilian corn crop ideas ticked lower
-Rain ideas in US extended guidance tempered
-No USDA sales announcements
-Argentine wheat area ideas ticked lower on dryness
-Cattle on Feed report this afternoon
Weather models are backing off rain amount ideas in the 6-10 and 11-16 day periods providing support this morning. Also providing support this morning is…
 A Bloomberg article overnight indicated a meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials in Hawaii this week resulted in China re-affirming their intention to meet the Phase One trade deal commitments and plan to accelerate purchases of U.S. ag products in an effort to do so after falling behind given the coronavirus outbreak, according to unnamed sources. In a tweet, Secretary of State Pompeo said a member of China’s Politburo “recommitted to completing and honoring all of the obligations of Phase 1 of the trade deal between our two countries.†Through the first four months of 2020, the value of U.S. ag-specific exports to China totaled $4.0 billion vs $3.4 billion during the same period last year, but represented just 11% of pledge to import $36.5 billion during the year. There has been talk this week of Chinese interest in corn and ethanol.
 Brazilian ag consultant Agroconsult estimates this year’s Brazilian corn crop at 100.1 MMT, down slightly from their reflection of last year’s crop of 102.5 MMT, and compares to USDA’s current 101.0 MMT estimates of this year’s and last year’s crops. They see the 2nd crop (safrinha) at 72.9 MMT vs CONAB last at 74.2 MMT and last year’s 73.2 MMT.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 French soft wheat conditions were steady over the last week at 56% good/excellent, the 3rd consecutive week of unchanged conditions, but obviously remain well below last year’s 80% g/e. Corn conditions were also unchanged at 83% g/e and compare to 81% g/e last year.
ï‚· Egypt ended up buying 240k tonnes of wheat in their latest tender, 180k Russian ($216.23-$219.20/tonne c&f) and 60k Ukrainian ($219.03/tonne c&f). Prices paid were down substantially from their previous purchase eight days prior of $226.90-$227.59/tonne c&f.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange ticked their estimate of this year’s Argentine wheat planted area down to 6.7 million hectares (16.6 mil acres) from 6.8 mil hectares (16.8 mil acres) previously due to dryness in northern and western growing regions. Planting is estimated at 58%
complete. The reduced acreage ideas are putting current ideas for a record wheat crop this year in jeopardy.
 EPA data confirmed they have received 52 small refinery waiver requests for 2011-2018 compliance years since a January court ruling that a number of the EPA’s previous waiver grants were inappropriately issued. The ruling effectively could/should have put an end to new waiver requests as it stated only extensions of previously-granted waivers were allowed by law.
ï‚· Tunisia ended up buying 159k tonnes of optional-origin soft milling wheat for July 25-Sept 25 shipment periods, after tendering for 176k tonnes, at prices ranging from $211.98-$216.89/tonne c&f.
 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. In recent months, massive declines in placements and marketings have been seen in response to the COVID-impacted meatpacking plant closures. This situation prompted the most significant year-over-over declines in “on feed†numbers since early January 2014 for April and May. A rebound is anticipated according to the average trade estimates with May placements estimated at 96.1% of last year (81.2-102.2 range of ideas) vs 77.7% in April and 77.3% in March, although May marketings are still expected to be down sharply at 73.9% of last year (72.7-76.8 range) following April’s 75.7%. The net impact, though, leaves June 1 cattle on feed estimated at 98.7% of last year (95.5-100.0 range) vs 94.9% as of May 1 and 94.5% as of April 1. The average estimates for outright numbers are: June 1 on feed 11.587 million head, May placements 1.984 million and May marketings 1.530 million.
Weather
Showers and thunderstorms brought rains of .75-1.5â€, with some isolated heavier totals, to most of MN and the NW ½ of IA yesterday. The front and rains in the NW overnight will continue to ease to the east and south and into much of the region in the next 1-2 days. The rains will fluctuate in intensity and coverage along it as it works slowly east and south and there will even be a second front that catches up to it by Monday and early Tuesday. The rest of all of this will be for rains of .50-1.5â€, with areas of 1.5â€+, to fall in all but the NW ¾ of MN in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period looks dry Tues-Fri, but rains returning Friday and into the weekend, although models are struggling with amounts/coverage. the European
has remnants of a tropical low through the OH River Valley Saturday, which would put down 1-2†of rain there, but also downplay the totals in the northern Midwest some, with amounts of .50-1â€+ in MN and northern IA, but then less than .50†elsewhere. The GFS sees totals of totals of .75-1.5†to fall in most areas north of I-80, with some rains possible down along the OH River Valley as well. The GFS went warmer/drier for the Midwest in the 11-16 day period, which is the start of July