-Argentine corn crop ideas raised again
-Pressure to provide biofuel blending relief returns
-Mexico reported delaying some GMO corn import permits
-Rains move across Dakotas – will they hold through IA?
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange solidly raised their estimate of the Argentine corn crop to 48 MMT from 46 MMT previously citing continued better-than-expected yields as harvest progresses. USDA left their estimate of the crop unchanged yesterday at 47.0 MMT, with last year’s crop also being 47.0 MMT. The exchange estimates corn harvest is 38% compete. The Rosario Grain Exchange is currently estimating the corn crop at 50 MMT.
Amid record-high RIN prices, President Biden is seeing pressure from the oil industry to provide relief for the high costs involved in complying with biofuel blending requirements. Several meetings have recently taken place with various senators and the EPA with topics discussed including a nationwide general waiver for some obligations, lowering the amount of required blending, capping RIN prices and issuing an emergency declaration, all of which are obviously negative for biofuels. Following the release of the story by Reuters, RIN prices came under heavy pressure, falling 15% from yesterday.
While uncertain of the degree so far, the head of Mexico’s National Farm Council said Mexico is delaying import permits for some GMO corn shipments from the U.S. with trade officials providing no input on the situation. Mexico’s plan to phase out GMO corn and glyphosate isn’t until 2024, with the specifics of the bans still highly uncertain. USDA’s Ag Secretary has assured the GMO ban will not include corn used for feed purposes, which essentially all imports from the U.S. are, but the National Farm Council has said they have not received the same assurances from the Mexican government at this point. Mexico imports roughly 17 MMT of corn/year, nearly all from the U.S. for feed purposes, and simply has no way to account for feed needs at that level under a full GMO ban.
French soft wheat conditions improved another 1% in good/excellent over the last week, now at 81% g/e and compares to 56% g/e at this time last year. A recent warm up across the country is proving beneficial to the crops. Spring barley conditions
improved 2% g/e to 86%, while winter barley and corn conditions were unchanged at 76% g/e and 91% g/e, respectively.
Widespread rains were seen across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska over the last 24 hours of .25-1.25”. Current radar shows rains moving into Iowa and Minnesota and continuing across eastern NE. The GFS remains optimistic for rain potential in Iowa in the 6-10 day period, but still generally limited amounts elsewhere. Once again, the model is trying to add a fairly decent event for parts of the belt in the 11-15 day period.