-Malaysian palm oil stocks expected to be 8-month high
-Argentine corn yields better than expected
-Export Sales solid corn/minimal soybeans and SBO
-Weather models at odds of U.S. precip
Overnight weather runs were drier for the U.S. than yesterday’s midday update, lending support the markets. The European, in particular, is less optimistic on rains in the western half of the belt than the GFS through the 10-day period, but the GFS still sees decent rains for IA, IL and IN in the 6-10 day period for now.
ï‚· Next Thursday, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report. The average trade estimate of end May Malaysian palm oil stocks is 1.644 MMT (1.543-1.754 MMT range of ideas), which would be up from 1.546 MMT in April and an 8-month high. Year ago May palm oil stocks were 2.030 MMT. Palm oil production in May is estimated at a 7-month high of 1.575 MMT (1.492-1.606 MMT range) vs 1.523 MMT in April and 1.651 MMT last year, while May exports are estimated at 1.350 MMT (1.300-1.581 MMT range) vs 1.339 MMT in April and 1.369 MMT last year.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said yields for late-planted Argentine corn are proving to be better than expected and even better than early planted crops in some areas. With corn harvest still only 34% complete, though, they are maintaining their estimate of the corn crop at 46.0 MMT for now. They estimated the soybean crop is 97% harvested and held their estimate of the crop steady at 43.5 MMT. USDA last estimated the corn and soybean crops both at 47.0 MMT.
 Russia’s ag minister said early ideas on 2021/22 wheat exports are 37.0 MMT, which would be down modestly from last year’s USDA-estimated 39.5 MMT and below USDA’s current estimate of 40.0 MMT. Yesterday’s, Russia’s official crop estimating agency held their estimate of wheat crop steady from the previous month at 81.0 MMT vs USDA’s estimate of 85.0 MMT and 85.4 MMT last year.
 French soft wheat conditions were unchanged in good/excellent over the last week at 80%, but there was a 2% shifting from good to excellent. Conditions remain substantially better than last year’s drought-afflicted crop rated 56% g/e in early June.
ï‚· Iran bought 195k tonnes of milling wheat, likely to be Russian/German/Baltic states, as well as 60k tonnes of soybean oil, likely South American, and 30k tonnes of sunflower oil all for June-July shipment. Prices were not available.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44105 details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· Old crop U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 5/27/21, of 531k tonnes (20.9 million bushels) were above market expectations of -200k to +400k tonnes and followed the previous week’s solid sales of 21.9 million bushels, as well. New net old crop purchases by China of 95k tonnes were reported this week (also 64k switched from unknown). Based on current sales on the books, we see little option but for USDA to further raise their export projection in next week’s WASDE report. New crop sales of 439k tonnes (17.3 mil bu) were within market expectations of 300-900k tonnes, with no new Chinese
buying reported, bringing 2021/22 sales to 593 million bushels 134 million last year and easily record high.
ï‚· U.S. old crop soybean sales were minimal at 18k tonnes (0.7 mil bu) vs market expectations of -100k to +200k tonnes, putting total commitments at 2.261 vs 1.567 billion last year, which likely still requires sales to average 3-4 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. New crop sales were 180k tonnes (6.6 mil bu), in line with expectations of 0-400k tonnes.
ï‚· New crop wheat sales were 398k tonnes (14.6 mil bu), in line with expectations of 200-500k tonnes and bringing 2021/22 total sales to 160 million bushels vs 128 million last year heading into the new marketing year with next week’s data.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales remain quite respectable with 218k tonnes sold for the week, in line with expectations of 100-300k tonnes, while averaging 176k tonnes/week over the last five weeks, solidly above the roughly 102k/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales, on the other hand, remain abysmal with only 1k tonnes sold for the week. SBO sales have totaled 12.8k tonnes ove the last 8 weeks combined vs average weekly needed sales of roughly 16k tonnes based on the USDA’s export projection.
Weather
Rainfall activity across U.S. growing areas in the last 24 hours was limited to far eastern and southern areas, with less than impressive rain chances over the next 10 days. The forecast for most Brazilian safrinha corn areas includes limited rainfall ideas through the 15-day outlook