-USDA reports more corn sales to China
-Attache has modest Chinese new crop oilseed demand ideas
-Higher Canadian canola production expected, but still tight supplies
-Cattle on Feed report this afternoon
-Argentina rain ideas again fairly limited
Grain markets stabilized overnight following yesterday’s commodity-wide broad selloff. Energy markets were under modest pressure early this morning again but started to show some recovery after yesterday’s lambasting. This week’s corn sales to China have largely been greeted with a shoulder shrug as they have been expected for weeks and the market has held the belief for months exports are likely to prove higher than USDA’s official estimate. Malaysian palm oil futures were under heavy pressure again overnight, losing 7.5% over the last four sessions.
 USDA reported another 800k tonnes of corn sold to China this morning, bringing the 4-day total announced sales to 3.876 MMT and total official sales on the books to 23.2 MMT (~25.5 MMT accounting for “unknown†sales).
 The USDA ag attaché in China sees mostly flat soybean demand in 2021/22, with total soybean imports estimated at 100 MMT vs their ideas of 20/21 imports of 99 MMT (USDA 100 MMT), with crush next year ticking higher to 99.0 MMT from 97.5 MMT this year (99.0 MMT USDA). The attaché sees next year’s total protein meal consumption at 98.0 MMT, up only slightly from this year’s 98.6 MMT (USDA 100.4 MMT), with total vegoil consumption next year at 39.5 MMT vs 39.0 MMT this year (USDA 40.3 MMT). The very modest new crop demand ideas are a bit surprising/disappointing. In terms of oilseed production, the attaché looks for essentially unchanged soybean production this year at 18.6 MMT vs 18.5 MMT last year (USDA 19.6 MMT) and rapeseed production at 13.5 MMT (13.5 MMT last year/13.2 MMT USDA). They see soybean oil imports in 21/22 declining to 700k tonnes from 900k this year (USDA 1.1 MMT), rapeseed oil imports unchanged at 1.6 MMT (USDA 1.7 MMT this year) and palm oil imports at 6.60 MMT vs 6.55 MMT this year (USDA 6.9 MMT). Total palm oil demand next year is estimated at 6.62 MMT, down from this year’s 6.500 MMT (USDA 6.92 MMT), while total soybean oil demand is estimated at 18.25 MMT in 21/22 vs 17.9 MMT this year (USDA 18.7 MMT) as the attaché is estimating considerably lower old crop vegoil demand than official USDA ideas reflect. In total, the attaché sees next year’s vegoil demand at 39.5 MMT vs 39.0 MMT this year (USDA 40.3 MMT).
 The USDA ag attaché in Canada expects a solid increase in new crop canola area to 21.4 million acres from 20.6 million this year, allowing production to rise to 20.0 MMT from 18.7 MMT last year (USDA 19.0 MMT). However, despite the expected increase in production, 21/22 canola total supplies would still decline to 20.8 MMT from 22.0 MMT this year given the sharp decline in old crop stocks to only 700k tonnes (USDA 1.2 MMT) following the poor crop last year and very strong exports. This prompts an expected decline in 21/22 canola exports to 9.6 MMT from this year’s 10.9 MMT and crush to 9.6 MMT from 10.2 MMT this year.
 The USDA ag attaché in Mexico sees a modest uptick in 21/22 corn imports to 16.8 MMT from this year’s 16.5 MMT, with new crop production estimated at 28.0 MMT vs last year’s 27.0 MMT.
 Oilseed workers at Argentina’s Rosario ports, which handle roughly 80% of the country’s ag exports, staged a 24-hour strike
today.
ï‚· French soft wheat conditions ticked down 1% in good/excellent from last week, but remain very good at 87% and compare to 63% g/e last year.
ï‚· This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of Cattle on Feed as of March 1 is
101.5% of last year (101.0-102.0 range of ideas) at 11.988 million head and follows Feb 1 of 101.5, while Dec 1 and Jan 1 on
feed numbers were essentially unchanged from last year. The average estimate of Feb placements is 98.3 (94.8-103.6 range) vs 103.2 in Jan, while Feb marketings are estimated at 97.4 (95.0-98.0 range) vs 94.4 in Jan.
Weather
Argentina looks mostly dry over the next 5 days with only the northeast belt potentially seeing modest rains, while all other areas look dry until the 2nd half of next week. At that time, a widespread .5-1.5†event is still on the maps, featuring good
amount/coverage in central and southern growing areas. The 11-15 day period looks to be mostly dry again.