-Argentine crop estimates continue to get trimmed
-Hopeful shot of rains for Argentina next week
-No USDA sales announcements
-US Plains on tap for needed moisture
Corn and the soycomplex worked lower again overnight as new news to feed the bull has been lacking this week. A solid rain opportunity for Argentina next week, good precip expected in the U.S. southern plains this weekend and no USDA sales announcements are allowing for some modest profit-taking heading into the weekend.
 As expected and following the Rosario exchange’s move earlier in the week, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of the Argentine soybean crop to 44 MMT from 46 MMT previously and corn to 45 MMT from 46 MMT previously given the dry conditions. The USDA last estimated the Argentine soybean crop at 47.5 MMT (48.8 MMT last year) and corn at 47.5 MMT (51.0 MMT last year).
 Coceral slightly lowered their estimate of 2021/22 EU-27 soft wheat production to 126.6 MMT from 127.9 MMT previously in December due to reduced area estimates in Germany, Italy and Hungary, but remains well above last year’s 118.8 MMT. Including the UK, the crop estimated at 141.5 MMT vs last year’s 128.2 MMT. New crop EU+UK rapeseed production was estimated at 17.7 MMT (17.8 MMT previously) vs 17.1 MMT last year.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning. After rumblings earlier in the week of Chinese corn buying, the market has been waiting for a daily sales notice, but nothing yet.
 French wheat conditions remain very solid, holding at 88% good/excellent this week and continuing to run well above last year’s troubled crop at 63% g/e at this time. Spring barley planting is already nearly complete at 90% and compares to last year’s crop only 33% planted in mid-March.
ï‚· In a rather unusual situation, strong Chinese buying has prompted Ukrainian barley prices to trade at a premium to high quality milling wheat for new crop June-July shipment periods at $220-$230/tonne CPT vs milling wheat at $218-$227/tonne CPT according to APKInform. They estimate China has bought 2.7 MMT of Ukrainian barley during the 2020/21 marketing year so far (July-Feb) compared to 800k tonnes last year, pushing old crop barley prices to $247-$255/tonne CPT. Ukraine produced 7.8 MMT of barley last year and is expected to export 4.2 MMT, while early new crop projections indicate an increase to 9.2 MMT due to higher planted area and favorable conditions.
ï‚· Egypt ended up buying 360k tonnes of wheat in their recent tender, all Romanian and all priced at $297.40/tonne c&f for April 15-25 shipment.
Weather
Rains of .20-.60†fell across most of Buenos Aries, the southern 1/3 of Entre Rios and Santa Fe and far northern La Pampa in Argentina yesterday. The models have come into agreement for the 5-day forecast, with a rather solid rain event expected with .75-1.5†amounts forecast with around 95% coverage, with locally 1.5â€+ totals scattered in. Models are also in agreement for a return to dry conditions for the 6-10 day period.
In Brazil, .25-.75â€, with some isolated heavier totals, fell across most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais yesterday. Dry conditions are expected for most of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana in the next 5 days, with totals of .25-.75†in MGDS, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais while 1-2†will fall across most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais. The 6-10 day period still shows .40-1†to fall in most areas with 1â€+ likely in MGDS and Mato Grosso.
A strong spring storm will bring heavy snows of 1-2 feet to the NE panhandle, with 5-9†in SD, southern MN and northern IA this weekend. The storm will also bring rains of 1-3†to the rest of NE and most of KS, with .75-1.5†rains in most of OK and the TX panhandle. Changes to the 6-10 day outlook indicate another low to bring rains of .65-1.3â€+ rains to most of KS and northern ½ of OK, as well as most of IA, MO and the southern ½ to 2/3 of IL, IN and OH.