-China granting tariff exemptions for U.S. ag products – now we wait and see
-Record Brazilian March soybean exports possible
-Argentine farm groups to hold 4-day strike
-Trump administration plans to appeal court ruling on small refinery waivers
-USDA announces corn sales to Japan
-Vastly improved Argentine rains remain in forecast
-Average trade estimate summary for next week’s USDA report
Equity markets are under significant pressure again this morning, casting a negative tone across commodity markets, as well. Vastly improved Argentine rains remain in the forecast and definitely are needed in some locations. USDA’s WASDE report is out next Tuesday. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39206.
 Another piece of massive Phase One trade deal puzzle has been put in place as Chinese authorities have started granting 1-year tariff exemptions for U.S. ag products. It essentially appears as though private importers simply apply for an exemption and are being granted without issue, valid for one year from the date of issue. At this time, it is not believed exemptions come with a quantity limit of any sort, but simply require importers to report purchases to the government so a rolling total can be maintained. Imports are then fully exempt from the full 27.5% tariff, putting U.S. ag products again on an even playing field with global supplies. Now we wait and see what happens. U.S. soybeans are far from competitive with South American supplies at this time as the record Brazilian crop gets harvested, with wire services quoting traders the U.S. soybeans are not expected to become viable until Aug/Sept. The exemptions also apply to other products such as DDGS, wheat, sorghum, etc., and although full details are not immediately verifiable, it is thought the full list of all ag products previously subject to the 27.5% tariff are now good to go. Overnight ag markets certainly were not too excited about the development with lower prices across the board, as it now becomes a matter of let’s see the business, which for now in the current ultra-price competitive environment, may prove even more discouraging knowing sales can be made but aren’t. At least we’ve seen some decent sorghum sales of late…
ï‚· Weather permitting, Brazilian port lineups show roughly 10 MMT of soybeans set to ship in March, the vast majority of which is likely destined for China, of course, compared to total February exports of 5.1 MMT and year ago March exports of 8.4 MMT. Record March Brazilian soybean exports were 9.0 MMT in 2017.
 All four major Argentine farm groups plan to hold a 4-day strike next week to protest the government’s recently-announced 3% export tax increase on soycomplex products. During the strike, leaders said all trade in grains will effectively be halted.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 235k tonnes of corn to Japan for 2019/20 delivery this morning.
ï‚· South Korea bought 65k tonnes of South American corn at $207.95/tonne c&f for June shipment.
 Just when it appeared the EPA was set to announce modifications to the small refinery waiver program as a result of a recent court ruling that several recent-year waiver allowances, and potentially the majority issued under the Trump Administration, did not meet legal guidelines, the Trump administration is now expected to appeal the federal court’s ruling and potentially keep the issue in limbo for the foreseeable future.
 French soft wheat conditions were unchanged over the last week at 64% good/excellent and remain well below year ago conditions at this time of 86% g/e. Early spring operations remain very challenging given continued wet conditions with spring barley planting 33% complete, rising just 1% for the week and massively behind last year’s historically fast 88% at this time.
Weather Rains of .30-.80†fell across most of La Pampa yesterday, with dry weather dominating the rest of the Argentine growing regions. Dry weather looks to hang on across the Argentine growing regions for the rest of the week and weekend. Some rains are expected Monday and will continue into Tuesday, with most totals in the .25-.75†range (isolated heavier) and coverage of around 75%. Rains are expected to continue off and on for the rest of next week with totals in the 1-2â€+ range expected and heaviest amounts in northern Buenos Aries, southern Santa Fe/Entre Rios. Rains of .25-.75â€+ again fell across the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais yesterday, with conditions dry elsewhere. Rains will continue to be confined to the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, most of Goias and Minas Gerais over the coming 5 days with most totals in the 1-2†range. In the 6-10 day period, rains look to remain confined to the same general areas, with totals of .50-1.5†expected.