-China reiterates grain security plans
-Argentine crop estimates maintained – for now
-French wheat in great shape
-Decent Argentine rains yesterday in some areas – some more possible in extended outlook
-USDA report next Tuesday
USDA will release the monthly WASDE report next Tuesday. Our pre-report commentary can be found at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43128 while a summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
ï‚· China will maintain the total spending amount on grain/edible oil stockpiling in 2021 at 122.5 billion yuan (~$19 billion), but
details on allocations between crops was not immediately available. Officials said the minimum purchase price for wheat and rice will be raised, but again without details available. The state planner said they support grain production on barren land, as well as continue to rebuild pig production in 2021. Planners reiterated intentions to increase corn area this year, while maintaining soybean production levels in 2021.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange maintained their estimate of the Argentine soybean crop at 46.0 MMT, but warned of a likely reduction in their estimate if improved rains are not seen in the weeks ahead. The also maintained their estimate of the corn crop at 46.0 MMT for the time being as well. Corn harvest is reportedly underway with 2% complete and will continue through July. For reference, Argentine corn harvest typically reaches 25% completion in mid-April, 50% in early June and 75% in midJuly.
ï‚· Brazilian ag consultant Datagro held their soybean and corn crop estimates essentially steady in their latest update at 135.7 MMT (135.9 MMT previously) and 109.6 MMT (110.1 MMT previously), respectively.
ï‚· French winter wheat conditions improved further over the last week, ticking up to 88% good/excellent from 87% g/e the
previous week and continue to run significantly better than last year’s troubled crop at 64% g/e at this time. Winter barley
conditions also improved 1% g/e to 84% and compare to 65% g/e last year.
ï‚· South Korea bought 130k tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat in two shipments of Aug and Sept arrival and priced at
$282.66/tonne and $275.14/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Pakistan passed on their latest tender for 300k tonnes of wheat citing prices being too high.
ï‚· KCBT wheat deliveries today were 100 contracts (thru 3/04/21), while there were no corn, soybean, SBM, SBO, CBOT wheat or MPLS deliveries.
Weather
Argentina saw .50-1â€+ in the southern S ½ of Buenos Aries yesterday, with totals of .25-.75†in the northern ½ of Santa Fe/Entre Rios and most of Corrientes, while dry conditions were seen elsewhere. The next 5 days look mostly dry, while models have come into better agreement for the 6-10 day period calling for rains of generally under .40†with coverage around 60% by the end of next week. The majority of Brazilian growing areas saw .30-1â€+ rains yesterday, with the exception of dry conditions in Minas Gerais and eastern Goias. The forecast through the 10-day period remains the same with rains of 1-2â€, with some isolated heavier totals, in around 95% of the Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period shows 1-2†north of Parana, with little in the way of rains for Parana, Santa Catarina and RGDS.