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-Rising ASF concerns hit Chinese ag markets
-French wheat conditions very good
-Near term dry Argentine forecast garnering attention
-Limited March deliveries, except MPLS/KC wheat

Grain markets were sharply lower overnight, continuing the setback started yesterday following the disappointing Export Sales numbers. Weakness in overseas markets contributed the additional losses here.
ï‚· Dalian soybean meal futures were hammered overnight, closing nearly 5% lower, on increasing concerns the return of African swine fever is more widespread and severe than previously thought. While little in the way of official details/comments have been provided by Chinese officials, industry participants have said ASF is spreading from the north to the south, with increasing reports of farmers dumping unhealthy pigs into the market to try to get as much money as possible while they can. Pork prices have declined nearly 30% this year and are at the lowest level since August 2019 following the sharp rebound in hog production.
 French winter grain crops remain in rather good condition with 87% of the soft wheat crop rated good/excellent, up 1% from last week and much better than last year’s crop at this time of 64% g/e. Winter barley was rated 83% g/e vs 66% g/e last year.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange maintained their estimates of the Argentine corn and soybean crops, both at 46.0 MMT, after improved rains in February stabilized production ideas. However, they raised some concerns with expectations for higher temperatures and essentially no precip over the next week potentially detrimentally impacting yield prospects. There has been upward movement in private crop ideas over the last week or so given the better rains of late, with 50+ MMT estimates for both corn and soybeans being seen.
ï‚· South Korea bought 137k tonnes of optional-origin corn at $293.89-$297.40/tonne c&f for mostly May shipment.
ï‚· Indonesia left the crude palm oil export levy (supports bio-diesel industry) at $255/tonne for March, as well as the palm oil export tax at $93/tonne, with little change being seen in the reference price over the last month at $1,036/tonne.
ï‚· Most first notice day March deliveries were very limited, as expected, with no deliveries for corn, soybeans, CBOT wheat, soybean oil and oats, while soybean meal deliveries were only 7 contracts (last trade data 1/06/21), while KCBT wheat saw 89 contracts delivered (12/01/20 last trade date). The only sizable deliveries posted were in MPLS wheat with 652 contracts put out and were through 2/12/21.
Weather
Yesterday saw rains of .20-.60†in around 55% of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, while other areas were dry. Over the next five days, 1-2â€+ is now expected in all but RGDS, a decrease in amounts from for RGDS and an increase for Santa Catarina from previous ideas. Areas expected to see 2-4†in the 6-10 day period expanded in today’s forecast to include most growing regions, which is an increase for Santa Catarina and RGDS which previously were indicated to see 25-.75â€.
Argentina was dry yesterday and is expected to remain so for the next five days. Previous ideas for some rains in western La Pampa in the period were removed. The 6-10 day period is also dry across Argentina. There appear to be some rain opportunities in the extended guidance beyond the 10-day period, but aren’t heavy amounts by any means.

CCSTrade
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