 The USDA’s 2021/22 U.S. balance sheet ideas released at this morning’s Ag Outlook Forum didn’t hold too many surprises, but were deemed fundamentally supportive with corn and soybean ending stocks projected to remain historically tight, while wheat stocks continue to be drawn down to potentially an 8-year low. USDA pegged new crop corn ending stocks at 1.552 billion bushels, soybeans at 145 million and wheat at 698 million. A look at the USDA’s new crop balance sheets, as well as their full grain/oilseed outlook provided at the forum, is available in our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsigh s/Blog/Read/43001. Additional commentary and comparisons of the USDA’s February acreage, ending stocks and price projections to final figures are available in our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43005.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange left their estimates of the Argentine soybean and corn crops unchanged in their latest estimates, both at 46.0 MMT, citing recent improved rains stabilizing production ideas. They said more than 97% of soybean areas currently had adequate to optimal moisture, but continued decent rains will be necessary in the weeks ahead to maintain current crop ideas. USDA last estimated the Argentine soybean crop at 48.0
MMT and corn at 47.5 MMT.
 Early yesterday, Sovecon lowered their estimate of the 2021/22 Russian wheat crop to 76.2 MMT from 77.7 MMT previously citing unfavorable winter conditions in some locations, as well as Russia’s new export tax regime negatively affecting some growers’ crop decisions. Next year’s crop is expected to decline from this year’s USDA record estimated 85.3 MMT, but the new Sovecon estimate still reflects the 3rd highest crop on record.
ï‚· This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of Cattle on Feed as of Feb 1 is 100.8% of last year (99.6-101.1 range of ideas) and compares to 100.1% as of Jan 1. The average estimate of January placements is 99.8 (95.1-103.0 range) vs 100.8 in December, while January marketings are estimated at 95.1 (94.3-98.4 range) vs 101.0 in December.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43008 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales of 456k tonnes (16.8 million bushels) were within market expectations of 300-900k tonnes, but were down from the previous two weeks’ 27.5 million and 30.2 million bushels as the seasonal decline in sales activity appears well underway. Net sales activity for China for the week was only 19k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week were 999k tonnes (39.3 million bushels), in line with market expectations of 800k-1.2 MMT and, thankfully, slowing from the torrid pace of late which averaged 61 million bushels/week in four of the last five weeks, exclusive of the massive Chinese-buying two weeks ago which resulted in a 293 million bushel sales week.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week of 399k tonnes (14.7 mil bu) were within market expectations of 250-650k tonnes and again exceeded the roughly 7 million bushels/week average sales pace needed in order for 2020/21 exports to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection. China was a buyer of 132k tonnes last week, 99k tonnes white and 33k tonne HRS.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales were solid at 322k tonnes, at the top end of market expectations of 100-350k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 264k tonnes and the highest in four weeks. Soybean oil sales were minimal again at only 4.4k tonnes, at the bottom of expectations of 5-30k and have averaged only 8.4k tonnes/week over the last four weeks vs the estimated 18.3k tonnes/week “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s export projection.
Weather
Brazil saw .30-1†across the northern ¾ of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais yesterday while other areas were dry. The 5-day forecast remains consistent with 2-4†expected in most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, with .25-.75†in RGDS and dry elsewhere. The 6-10 day outlook calls for 1-3†in most areas north of Parana, with conditions mainly dry south. This is a slight increase for areas in the north and a decrease for areas in the south. Argentina saw .25-.85†across La Pampa, southern Cordoba and far western Buenos Aries yesterday. Changes to the forecast now see only light rains of generally less than .25†to fall in around 75% of the Argentine growing regions in the next 5 days, while the 6-10 day period looks mostly dry everywhere. The forecast has turned drier and will need to be watched closely.
