-NOPA crush report next Tuesday
-Brazilian soybean exports reportedly quite strong
-Brazil farmer selling remains well ahead of average
-US markets closed Monday
-Rains added to Argentine forecast
U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday, with trade resuming after today’s close in the overnight session Monday evening. News is light with the Lunar New Year holiday underway. Argentina will be on holiday next Monday and Tuesday. USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum is next Thur-Fri.
 NOPA will release their monthly crush report next Tuesday, February 16, providing data for January. The average trade estimate for January NOPA soybean crush is 183.1 million bushels (180.0-186.3 million range of ideas), essentially unchanged from December’s 183.2 million and would reflects an expected 3.5% (6.2 million bushel) increase from last year’s Jan NOPA crush of 176.9 million. Based on the average estimate, U.S.-total crush for January would be implied around 193.7 million bushels vs last year’s 188.8 million, putting marketing year-to-date crush at 946 million bushels vs last year’s 898 million, leaving Feb-Aug crush needing to decline modestly to 1.254 billion bushels vs last year’s 1.267 billion in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel marketing year estimate. The average estimate of end January soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.763 billion pounds (1.710-1.850 billion range of ideas), up from 1.699 billion in December, but below last year’s Jan NOPA stocks of 2.013 billion pounds, but still the 2nd highest of the last seven years.
 Brazilian ag consultant Datagro estimates the country’s farmers have sold 60% of this year’s expected soybean crop vs average of 41%, while next year’s crop is estimated to already be 9% sold vs 2% average. Last year, it was estimated farmers had sold roughly 50% of the crop by early February. Their early ideas on next year’s soybean acreage reflect an expected 2.9% increase in area, allowing for a crop around 141.2 MMT.
ï‚· Brazilian oilseed association Abiove estimates more than 900k tonnes of soybeans have been shipped from Brazil already in
February and sees the possibility of total exports for the month of 6.6 MMT. Brazil exported 4.8 MMT of soybeans in February
last year. Given the slow harvest, those are some impressive numbers. They maintained their estimates for this year’s soybean crop at 132.6 MMT and marketing year total exports at 83.0 MMT (82.1 MMT last year).
ï‚· Indian palm oil imports in January surged on the temporary reduction in import taxes, with 781k tonnes imported vs roughly 595k tonnes in December, while soybean oil imports declined sharply in reaction to 89k tonnes from roughly 260k tonnes in December. In order to help control rising food prices, India cut the import tax on crude palm oil to 27.5% in November from 37.5%, spurring the quick surge in buying. Since then, though, a new duty structure was implemented, effectively raising the crude palm oil import tax back to 35.8% and eliminating its advantage over other oils.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 195k tonnes of corn to Costa Rica (135.6k old crop, 59.7k new crop), as well as 116k tonnes of corn to Guatemala for 20/21 this morning.
Weather
Rains of .35-1â€+ fell across around 90% of the Brazilian growing regions yesterday. The outlook for the 1-5 day period shows 2-3†in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and northern ½ of MGDS, with 1-2†in all other areas. The 6-10 day outlook remains consistent with 1-4†expected from northern MGDS and Sao Paulo north, with little in the way of rains to the south.
Argentina saw .20-.60â€+ across Corrientes yesterday, while conditions were mainly dry elsewhere. Rains of .50-1.5†look to fall in most of Buenos Aries, Entre Rios, Santa Fe and most of Corrientes over the next 5 days, while La Pampa and Cordoba still look to be mainly dry. Rains were added in the 6-10 day outlook of .50-1†for most of Cordoba, Santa Fe and southern Entre Rios, while other areas still look to remain quiet the period.