-Survey shows lower than expected U.S. soybean acreage ideas, corn up solidly
-Stats Canada Grain Stocks report numbers widely below expectations
-Argentine corn crop idea bumped lower, Brazilian crop ideas tweaked higher
-Argentine forecast remains mixed
-Trade estimate summary for Feb 9 USDA report
USDA’s WASDE report will be out next Tuesday, February 9. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42847. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 A Farm Futures magazine survey on 2021/22 U.S. acreage ideas showed U.S. corn planted area estimated at 94.7 million acres, up 3.9 million from last year and the highest since 95.4 million in 2013, with soybean area rising to 84.5 million acres from 83.1 million last year. The soybean estimate certainly appears on the low side relative to overall expectations for a potentially largescale increase on the way. “Other spring†wheat area was estimated at 12.6 million acres vs 12.25 million last year, with total wheat area at 46.4 million vs 44.3 million last year. Winter wheat at 32.4 million acres compared to USDA’s January Winter Wheat Seedings report estimate of 31.991 million. The results were based on responses from 806 farmers, with the survey conducted in January.
 Statistics Canada’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, providing estimated stocks as of December 31, put all wheat stocks at 24.845 MMT, solidly below the average trade estimate of 25.4 MMT (24.4-27.0 MMT range of ideas) and compares to 25.825 MMT last ye r. Dec 31 canola stocks were estimated at 12.140 MMT, slightly below the average estimate of 12.3 MMT (10.7-13.8 MMT range) and down from last year’s 15.907 MMT, while Dec 31 oat stocks were estimated at 2.682 MMT vs the average trade estimate of 3.0 MMT (2.6-3.4 MMT range) and 2.671 MMT last year. Dec 31 barley stocks were put at 5.680 MMT vs the average trade estimate of 5.9 MMT (5.0-7.0 MMT range) and last year’s 5.954 MMT.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of the Argentine corn crop to 46.0 MMT from 47.0 MMT previously and compares to USDA last at 47.5 MMT and 51.0 MMT last year. The reduction was due to reduced yield potential in early-planted crops in Cordoba, Santa Fe and parts of Buenos Aires given the dryness at the time. Their estimate of the soybean crop remains at 46.5 MMT and compares to USDA last at 48.0 MMT (48.8 MMT last year).
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report on February 10. The average estimate of end January Malaysian palm oil stocks is 1.287 MMT (1.158-1.360 MMT range of ideas), up slightly from 1.265 MMT in December, but remain well below last year’s 1.755 MMT. January palm oil production is estimated at 1.160 MMT (1.108-1.400 MMT range) vs 1.334 MMT in Dec and 1.172 MMT last year, while January exports are estimated at 1.056 MMT (1.000-1.500 MMT range) vs 1.625 MMT in Dec and 1.214 MMT last year and would be the lowest monthly export total since February 2015.
ï‚· Brazilian ag consultant Datagro tweaked their crop ideas, bumping the soybean crop up to 135.9 MMT from 135.6 MMT
previously (USDA 133.0 MMT) and corn to 110.1 MMT from 109.9 MMT previously (USDA 109.0 MMT).
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 102k tonnes of corn to unknown for 2020/21 delivery this morning.
Weather
Rains of .20-.60†fell across Santa Catarina and Parana in Brazil yesterday, with totals of .25-.75â€+ in roughly 85% of the growing regions north of Parana. Rains of 2-4†will fall in most of Minas Gerais, Goias and Mato Grosso in the next 5 days, with totals of generally less than .35†scattered elsewhere. The 6-10 day outlook remains consistent with 2-4â€+ expected in most of Minas Gerais, Goias and Mato Grosso, with .50-1â€+ amounts elsewhere. Argentina was dry yesterday and is expected to remain so through at least the next five days. Model ideas for the 6-10 day period remain divergent with GFS remaining dry, while the European continues to indicate .50-1.5†to be fairly widespread.