-Brazilian soybean crop ideas centering around 132-133 MMT
-Recent rains help stabilize Argentine crops
-USDA reports soybean/sorghum sales to China
-Soybean/corn/SBM/SBO export sales strong
 Brazilian ag consultant Agroconsult slightly lowered their estimate of the country’s soybean crop to 132.4 MMMT from 133.2 MMT previously, as most estimates of late have largely settled into a 132-133 MMT range of ideas (USDA 133.0 MMT/126.0 MMT last year). They expect only around 4.5-5.0 MMT of soybeans to be available from this year’s harvest by the end of January vs last year’s 11 MMT given the slow start to planting. New crop soybean exports are estimated at 83.0 MMT, little-changed from their previous ideas of 83.2 MMT and compares to USDA’s 85.1 MMT/82.0 MMT last year estimates. Their estimate of the Brazilian corn crop held steady at 109.0 MMT (108.8 MMT previously) and compares to USDA’s 109.0 MMT/102.0 MMT last year. The safrinha crop is estimated at 83.9 MMT, substantially above CONAB’s latest estimate of 76.8 MMT, who is currently estimating total production at only 102.3 MMT, and last year’s 75.1 MMT. New crop corn exports were estimated at 39.0 MMT, in line with the USDA’s current estimate and up from this year’s 35.0 MMT, with the consultancy saying Brazil may begin being able to export corn to China this year after sanitary protocols are revisited.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said recent Argentine rains have helped stabilize the corn and soybean crops as they begin to enter key yield-determining development stages. They estimated roughly 8% of the soybean crop is setting pods.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 136k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2020/21 delivery this morning, as well 123k tonnes of sorghum (60k old crop/63k new crop) to China, as well.
 Sovecon bumped their Russian new crop (2021/22) wheat crop estimate up to 77.7 MMT from 76.8 MMT previously as a result of favorable winter weather (heavy snowfall of late). However, early production ideas remain well below this year’s 85.9 MMT crop.
 The group formerly known as Informa now sees 2021/22 U.S. corn acreage at 94.2 million acres, up notably from their ideas last month of 91.2 million and last year’s 90.8 million, with new crop soybean area now estimated at 90.1 million acres vs 89.4 million last month and last year’s 83.1 million. “Other spring†wheat area was estimated at 11.5 million acres (11.7 million previously) vs 12.25 million last year, with all wheat at 45.3 million vs 45.4 million last month and 44.3 million last year. They see cotton area at 11.5 million acres, down solidly from 13.1 million expected last month and down from last year’s 12.1 million.
ï‚· Turkey bought 400k tonnes of wheat following its recent tender for the same amount of 12.5-13.5% protein supplies. Prices ranged from $301.90-$315.50/tonne c&f. In their last tender in December, Turkey bought 400k tonnes, with the lowest price paid of $264.80/tonne c&f.
ï‚· This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of cattle on feed as of January 1 is 99.4% of last year (98.8-100.0 range of ideas, 11.886 million head) vs 100.0 as of Dec 1. December placements are estimated at 97.0 (93.0-100.0 range, 1.773 mil head) vs 91.1 in November, while December marketings are estimated at 100.6 (100.0-101.8 range, 1.845 mil head) vs 98.3 in November.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42715 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were strong at 1.818 MMT (66.8 million bushels), above market expectations of 750k-1.5 MMT, up sharply from the previous week’s 28.8 million bushels and, impressively, the largest in 13 weeks. China was quite aggressive heading into the mid-January USDA reports, buying another 486k tonnes. There were also 831k tonnes in new crop sales this week (319k China, 452k unknown, 60k Spain).
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week were strong, as well, at 1.438 MMT (56.6 mil bu), beating market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT and essentially identical to the previous week’s sales. Over the last 8 weeks, corn sales have averaged 48.7 mil bu/week vs 30.7 million/week during the same period last year.
 U.S. wheat sales of 330k tonnes (12.1 mil bu) were towards the bottom of market expectations of 250-600k tonnes as the generally weak sales pace of late continues. Over the last five weeks, wheat sales have averaged only 12.8 mil bu/week vs 19.0 million/week in the 5-week prior period, but continue to run at a pace supporting the USDA’s export projection.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales were strong again at 469k tonnes, above market expectations of 100-400k tonnes, up from the previous week’s also-strong 337k tonnes and hitting another new marketing year high. Soybean oil sales were the 2nd highest of the last 10 weeks at 52.3k tonnes and beating market expectations of 10-30k tonnes.
Weather
Brazil saw rains of .35-1â€+ across most of Santa Catarina, Parana, MGDS and Mato Grosso yesterday. The forecast remains unchanged with 1-3â€+ expected with widespread coverage of Santa Catarina, Parana and MGDS and totals of .40-1â€+ to Mato Grosso and northern RGDS, with little in the way of rains in Sao Paulo, Goias and Minas Gerais. Widespread 1-2â€+ rains are expected across most Brazilian growing regions in the 6-10 day period. Dry conditions are expected for the southern 2/3 of Argentine growing areas over the next five days, but this morning’s forecast added 1-3†rains to Corrientes and the northern ½ of Santa Fe and Entre Rios in the 5-day period. Widespread .60-1.25†rains are still expected for most growing regions by the middle of next week.