-USDA discusses Phase One trade deal implications for WASDE/other reports in white paper
-Russian new crop wheat crop/export ideas very strong, while old crop exports pulled back
-Algeria gives approval for Russian wheat imports/Iraq next?
-French wheat exports remain strong despite strikes
-Trade estimate summary for upcoming WASDE report
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out next Tuesday. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38897.
A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 Yesterday afternoon, the USDA published a white paper discussing how the signing of the Phase One trade deal with China may, or may not, impact various estimates/analysis for the monthly WASDE report, as well as other USDA agencies’ approaches to global ag forecasts/reports. The paper includes broad stroke comments indicating the trade deal will be a factor in USDA’s forecasting moving forward such as, “Publicly available information and data pertaining to the Agreement will be reflected in USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report beginning in February 2020…†However, the overriding difficulties involved with making specific trade/demand estimates given the structure of the Phase One trade deal, which we discussed in our pre-report commentary, may leave USDA continuing a more pragmatic approach to their demand estimates despite the multi-billion dollar “promises†in the deal. Specifically, USDA said, “…while the Agreement may contain specific purchase commitments for individual commodities, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has not released that information publicly, and it therefore plays no direct role in USDA’s market analysis and forecasts. As actual export sales accrue over time and market conditions evolve, USDA’s trade forecasts will be updated to reflect the timing and composition of China’s purchases of U.S. agricultural products throughout the relevant marketing (or fiscal) year.†The USDA’s white paper on the impact of the Phase One trade deal on their forecasting methods and implications for various reports moving forward is available at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/reports/USDATradeForecastsAndUSChinaAgreement.pdf.
 Early ideas of the coming 2020/21 Russian wheat crop continue to be impressive. The latest of which comes from the Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies which sees new crop wheat production prospects at 79.5 MMT vs the 2019/20 crop of 73.5 MMT (USDA), with next year’s wheat exports seen jumping to 37.0 MMT. Russian ag consultant IKAR just lowered their estimate of current marketing year (2019/20) Russian wheat exports to 32.9 MMT from 33.5 MMT previously due to coronavirus impacts on trade flows, while USDA’s last official estimate is 34.0 MMT. IKAR said wheat export may end up being below 32 MMT. USDA issues their first official global new crop outlook estimates in the May WASDE report.
ï‚· Algeria has given preliminary approval to Russian wheat imports following recent phytosanitary tests. Russia is sending test batches of wheat to Iraq this month to gain import approval, as well.
 The port/rail strikes in France have not appeared to materially impact the country’s grain export capability as a season-high 1.2 MMT of soft wheat was exported to non-EU countries in December, up from 1.0 MMT in November, while port loading analysis indicates January shipments were similar to December levels, as well. Marketing year to date (July-Dec) French soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations of 5.2 MMT are up 19% from last year.
 Organizers of Malaysia’s largest annual palm oil convention, attended by more than 2000 participants and scheduled for March 2-4, announced it was being delayed until June 22-24 due to health and safety concerns from the coronavirus epidemic.
Weather The Argentine forecast shows .50-1â€+ for northern Buenos Aries and most of Santa Fe/Entre Rios in the next 24-36 hours, with mostly dry conditions across the country through next week. The next system comes in the very end of next week/weekend with early ideas showing .40-1†for most areas. Brazil’s forecast shows .50-1†for most areas from Parana south in the next 5 days, with totals of 1-2†for areas north of Parana and some 2â€+ totals likely in Mato Grosso and Goias. Models differ for the 6-10 day period with the GFS showing .50-1.5â€+ for most areas, while the European has .50-1†in RGDS, dry weather in Santa Catarina/Parana and 1-2â€+ totals north of Parana.