-Brazil safrinha corn forecast remains dry, crop estimates continue to decline
-Grains sharply higher again overnight
-CME new higher daily price limits in effect
-Funds unexpectedly small net seller in corn in latest CFTC data
-USDA Oilseeds Crushings report this afternoon
Global grain/oilseed markets continue to surge higher, with Malaysian palm oil up 5% overnight, prompting massive gains in front month May soybean oil (up 3.13 cents), while corn was sharply higher on continued dry forecasts for Brazil. Major safrinha corn areas have virtually no rain in the forecast for the next 10 days. Soybeans pushed higher given the strength in soybean oil, while wheat saw a bit more reluctant price gains in the overnight session. Many global markets are closed today for May Day.
The CME’s new daily price limits go into effect with today’s session. New daily limits are: corn 40 cents/bu, soybeans $1.00/bu, CBOT and KCBT wheat 45 cents/bu, SBO 3.5 cents/lb and SBM $30/ton. The daily price limit in oats will be 25 cents/bu and 95 cents/cwt for rough rice.
On Friday, Safras & Mercado solidly lowered their estimate of the Brazilian corn crop to 104.1 MMT from 112.8 MMT previously, with the safrinha crop lowered 10 MMT from previous ideas to 70.7 MMT. Their estimate is now down 4.4 MMT from last year’s 75.1 MMT and 12.1 MMT below CONAB’s last official estimate of 82.8 MMT. CONAB last estimated the total corn crop at 108.1 MMT vs last year’s 102.5 MMT. Many private estimates of the Brazilian corn crop have moved to/below 100 MMT.
Ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s are update are 40-45% (17% last week/36% avg), around 20% soybeans (8% last week/11% avg) and 46-50% spring wheat (28% last week/32% avg).
Strategie Grains maintained their estimate of the EU-27 rapeseed crop at 16.8 MMT, reflecting a modest increase from last year’s 16.43 MMT.
Malaysian April palm oil/product exports of 1.413 MMT were up from 1.246 MMT in March and solidly above last year’s 1.194 MMT according to cargo surveyor SGS.
The CME further raised May corn futures maintenance margins to $2050/contract from $1900 previously.
Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined, for the week ended 4/27/21, showed funds were actually small net sellers in corn of 5.3k contracts, ticking their net long down to 378.7k contracts, in sharp contrast to wire service estimates of funds being net buyers of around 150k contracts for the week. Funds were net buyers of 7.5k contracts in soybeans and are now net long 180k, while wire services estimated net buying around 37k contracts for the period. Funds were net buyers of 11.8k contracts of CBOT wheat (net long 13.4k), 11.3k KCBT wheat (net long 30.0k) and
2.0k MPLS wheat (net long 14.1k). Funds were net buyers of 2.6k SBO (net long 92.6k) and 6.0k SBM (net long 54.1k).
USDA’s monthly Oilseeds Crushings report will be out this afternoon at 2:00 PM CT. The average estimate of March U.S. soybean crush is 188.4 million bushels (188.0-189.2 million range of ideas) vs 164.3 million in February and would be down 2.0% from last year’s 192.2 million. NOPA March crush was down 1.9% from last year. The average estimate of end March U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.317 billion pounds (2.250-2.351 billion range) vs 2.306 billion in February and 2.327 billion last year. The average estimate reflects U.S. total stocks 30.8% larger than NOPA stocks, which is right in line with the average difference between the two so far in 2020/21.
May soybean deliveries saw the 66 contracts put on Friday recirculate, with the last trade date now up to 4/7/21. No corn deliveries still. Soybean oil deliveries were 488 contracts (629 on first notice day), with ADM stopping 427, and are through 4/29/21, while the 9 soybean meal contracts put out on Monday also recirculated (LTD 4/26/21). The first May CBOT wheat deliveries were put out with 200 contracts issued and were through 4/15/21. Only 5 KCBT deliveries were put out today following Monday’s 590 contracts (LTD 4/27/21), while MPLS wheat deliveries were 52 contracts vs first notice day issues of 337 contracts and were through 4/21/21.
NOTE: We have added weather model-estimated precip summary tables to our daily comments. The tables summarize the GFS and European model’s estimated precip by region and by period, along with the change in estimated precip from the forecast 24 hours prior. The U.S. table below compiles estimated state-average precip forecasts into regional averages: WCB (NE, MN, IA, MO), ECB (IL, IN, OH, WI), S. Plains (KS, OK, TX), N. Plains (ND, SD).
On the following page, tables including precip estimates by state, as well as Brazilian safrinha corn areas and Ukraine production areas are also available.
Precip activity over the last 72 hours in the corn belt included .25-1.5” with 30% coverage (good amounts along a line from south central NE through central WI) with lighter amounts in the southeastern halves of MO and IL and all of IN and OH. The Central/Southern Plains saw .25”-1.25” (locally 5.0”) with 40% coverage, with good rains in central KS and most of TX, except the panhandle. OK was mostly dry.