-Brazilian soybean crop idea bumped higher
-Argentine wheat crop idea bumped higher
-Good South American rains in forecast
-Malaysian Dec palm oil stocks lower than expected – 27-month low
-Export Sales exceptionally weak all around
-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT
USDA’s Annual Crop Production report, quarterly Grain Stocks report, monthly WASDE report and Winter Wheat Seedings report will all be out today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38543. A summary of the trade estimates is on the following page.
 Brazilian ag consultant, Agroconsult, sees this year’s soybean crop at 124.3 MMT, up slightly from their previous estimate of 124.0 MMT and last year’s 119.0 MMT, as well as USDA’s current estimate of 123.0 MMT and the 122.9 MMT average trade estimate for today’s USDA update.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange slightly raised their estimate of the Argentine wheat crop to 18.8 MMT from 18.5 MMT previously (USDA 19.0 MMT/19.5 MMT last year) with harvest 96% complete, while slightly lowering their estimate of soybean planted area to 17.5 million hectares (43.2 mil acres) from 17.7 mil hectares (43.7 mil acres) previously. Soybean planting is 93% complete, while corn planting is 88% complete.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end December palm oil stocks in the country were 2.007 MMT, a 27-month low and were below average market expectations of 2.064 MMT, down from 2.255 MMT in November and substantially below year ago Dec stocks of 3.216 MMT. Palm oil production in December of 1.334 MMT was in line with average expectations of 1.338 MMT, but down from 1.538 MMT in Nov and substantially below year ago Dec production of 1.808 MMT. Malaysian palm oil exports in Dec of 1.396 MMT were above expectations of 1.319 MMT, but in line with November’s 1.406 MMT and last year’s 1.383 MMT. Palm oil futures moved higher overnight on the lower than expected stocks figure, hitting a new high for the move before settling back at bit from the highs by the close.
ï‚· South Korea bought 68k tonnes of optional-origin corn at $209.95/tonne c&f for April 5 arrival, with prices similar to those of other purchases earlier in the week that are believed to have gone to the U.S.
ï‚· China made no changes to their corn, soybean and edible oil balance sheet ideas this month, leaving all estimates for production, imports, consumption and estimated change in ending stocks from the previous year unchanged.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38595 for details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· Export Sales were simply atrocious all around, even in context of the holiday week. Corn, wheat and soybean meal sales were all marketing year lows, while soybean and soybean oil sales were minimal, as well.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were abysmal at a marketing year low 162k tonnes (6.4 million bushels) and compared to last year’s same-week sales of 18.1 million bushels. The largest reported-destination sales were just 21k tonnes to Japan.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales last week of 356k tonnes (13.1 million bushels) were below market expectations of 400-800k tonnes, but would have been even worse if not for the USDA’s lowering of last week’s sales to just 9.3 million bushels from the initially-reported 12.1 million.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales were exceptionally weak at just 81k tonnes (3.0 million bushels), easily a marketing year low and below market expectations of 200-550k tonnes.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales of 74k tonnes were below market expectations of 75-250k tonnes and were a marketing year low, while soybean oil sales were minimal at just 2.6k tonnes vs market expectations of 0-25k.
Weather Rains of .20-.80†fell across the northern ½ of Buenos Aries as well as into the southern ½ Santa Fe and most of Entre Rios yesterday. Widespread 1â€+ rains are expected mid-week. Rains of .35-1â€, isolated to 1â€+, fell across around 80% of the Brazilian growing regions yesterday. Most Brazilian growing regions will see .50-1â€+ rains over the next 5 days with the heaviest totals seen for Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo. An additional .50-1.5â€+ is expected for most areas in the 6-10 day period, as well with the heaviest totals seen for northern Sao Paulo, southern Minas Gerais and southern Goias.