-Corn/wheat exports lower than expected
-Soybean exports in lower half of expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 10/03/19, were just 467k tonnes (18.4 million bushels), below market expectations of 500-700k tonnes (19.7-27.6 million bushels) and continue to run sharply below year ago exports, which were 1.453 MMT (57.2 million bushels) this week. Through the first five weeks of 2019/20, cumulative exports are just 80 million bushels, 66% below last year’s 233 million bushels at this time, averaging 17.0 million bushels/week vs last year’s 47.3 million/week average through early October. This week’s activity showed the shipment of 59k tonnes of corn to China, which was already on the books and reflected in Export Sales data, leaving no outstanding sales to China at this time. Based on the USDA’s 2.050 billion bushel export projection, corn exports will need to average roughly 39 million bushels/week over the marketing year vs last year’s 34.5 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 1.039 MMT (38.2 million bushels) were in the lower portion of market expectations of 900k-1.4 MMT (33.1-51.4 million bushels) and were little-changed from the previous week’s 986k tonnes (36.2 million bushels), but were well above last year’s same-week exports of 609k tonnes (22.4 million bushels). Shipments to China last week were a bit more limited at just 140k tonnes, but were still the single-largest destination, followed by the Netherlands with 121k and Spain 120k. With decent exports to China of late vs virtually no activity early in the marketing year last year, cumulative exports of 154 million bushels are up 17% from last year’s 132 million at this time, leaving exports needing to average roughly 33.4 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 32.8 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports of 385k tonnes (14.2 million bushels) were just below market expectations of 400-600k tonnes (14.7-22.0 million bushels), down from the previous week’s 503k tonnes (18.5 million bushels) and modestly below last year’s same-week exports of 448k tonnes (16.5 million bushels). Through the first 18 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year, cumulative exports of 327 million bushels are still up 21% from last year’s 271 million, but declining as exports were up more than 28% on the year in early August. We estimate wheat exports will need to run essentially unchanged from last year throughout October-May at 18.5 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushels export projection.
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