-November corn for ethanol usage little-changed from October
-USDA annual corn for ethanol usage estimate continues to look too low
USDA reported 468.7 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production in November, nearly identical to October’s 467.9 million bushels, but modestly above last year’s 431.7 million, putting total 1st quarter (Sept-Nov) corn for ethanol usage at 1.344 billion bushels vs 1.268 billion last year, up 6.0%. However, the EIA’s weekly ethanol production data during Sept-Nov showed an average year-over-year increase of around 8% so actual corn usage data appears to be running a bit behind what is being implied/expected based on looking at ethanol production data alone. With the first quarter now in the books, 2nd-4th quarter (Dec-Aug) corn for ethanol usage would need to total 3.906 billion bushels in order to reach the USDA’s current 5.250 billion bushel target for 2021/22, up 3.9% from last year’s 3.761 billion bushels during the same period. Based on ethanol production/corn usage so far, the USDA’s annual estimate continues to look a bit low, but it’s still a long year ahead and ethanol margins will need to stay solid to keep production rates running at current levels. We’re currently estimating annual corn for ethanol usage at 5.325 billion bushels, which would Dec-Aug usage to be up nearly 6% from last year, but remember last year’s disastrous February situation in which at least 40+ million bushels of corn demand was likely lost due to the massive ice storm power outages across the Midwest. The average ethanol/corn yield in November held steady at an estimated 2.87 gallons/bushels vs 2.88 in October, with the average yield in the 1st quarter of 2.88 gallons/bushel being identical to last year during Sept-Nov. USDA reported 1.997 million tons of DDGS were produced in November vs 1.949 million in October and 1.794 million tons last year, with total Sept-Nov production of 5.71 million tons up modestly from 5.36 million tons last year.
