Brazil:
 Estimate soy crop at 135-137 mmt vs. USDA’s 139 mmt (yield prospects stable
to lower over last week)
 Expect cut in soy yield & quality in northern areas hammered by excess rains
 Shortage of defoliant chemical to speed soy harvest a “major problemâ€
 Late variety soy planted in RGDS can still benefit from late January rains
 Look for harvest to accelerate rapidly by mid-Feb
 Farmers again challenged by high trucking costs/poor roads in wet areas/erratic
$ rate
Argentina:
 Est. soy crop at 42-43 mmt (USDA @ 46.5 mmt), corn at 54 mmt (USDA 52
mmt) & wheat at 21.5 mmt (USDA at 20.5 mmt)
 Crop deterioration underscored in recent week by marked decline in crop ratings
 Early corn prospects hurt most by Dec/Jan dryness
 Recent rains will boost late soy prospects, but concern persists over reversion to
prevailing dry pattern next month
 Export loadings (light ahead of 2022 harvest) have not been curtailed by Covid
(unlike N Hemisphere—its summertime thus less contagion/flu).
 Inflation @ 45%–farmers holding tight until better fix on 2022 yields—new crop
soy sales at 12% below last year’s 18%