-Brazil Sept corn exports record high for month as torrid export pace continues
-Brazilian ethanol exports remain strong
-USDA confirms soybean sales to China
-Biofuels deal supposedly near signing
-Egypt tenders for wheat
 Brazil exported 6.50 MMT of corn in September, down modestly from August’s all-time monthly record exports of 7.64 MMT, but still massively above year ago exports of 3.36 MMT in August. Brazil’s marketing year-to-date (March-Aug) exports of 24.1 MMT (950 million bushels) dwarf last year’s same-period exports of 8.3 MMT (325 mil bu) and smash the previous record for the period of 14.8 MMT (580 mil bu) two years ago. Based on CONAB’s latest estimate of this year’s exports at 35.0 MMT, Brazil would have roughly 12.6 MMT of remaining exports during the OctFeb period vs last year’s 16.9 MMT, reflecting a potential solid slowdown. However, USDA is currently estimating this year’s exports at 38.0 MMT and would leave 15.6 MMT yet to exports, down only modestly from last year and indicating continued notable export competition, similar to last year, through the first half of the 2019/20 U.S. marketing year.
 Brazil exported 4.45 MMT (163 mil bu) of soybeans in September, down from 5.32 MMT (196 mil bu) in August and little-changed from last year’s August exports of 4.56 MMT (168 mil bu). Brazil’s current marketing year-to-date (Feb-Sept) soybean exports of 60.9 MMT (2.237 bil bu) are down solidly from last year’s 67.6 MMT (2.484 bil bu), but are the 2nd highest on record. Based on CONAB’s marketing year total export estimate of 70.0 MMT, Brazil would see 9.1 MMT (335 mil bu) in total exports during the Oct-Jan period vs last year’s 16.8 MMT (616 mil bu), while USDA’s current annual estimate is slightly lower at 69.0 MMT and would leave 8.1 MMT (299 mil bu) to export over the next four months.  Brazil exported 59.6 million gallons of ethanol in September vs 46.6 million last year Sept, but was down solidly from 83.1 mil in August. 2019 calendar year to date ethanol exports of 383 million gallons compare to 308 million during the same period last year.  USDA reported the sale of 464k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery, largely confirming the expected 500-600k tonnes in new purchases earlier in the week.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 464k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery, largely confirming the expected 500-600k tonnes in new purchases earlier in the week.
ï‚· Early in the session yesterday, wire services ran a story saying the EPA essentially was halting work on a proposed biofuels deal that has seen back and forth debate for months between the White House and ag and oil states. Overnight, though, wire service stories indicated a final deal is near and may be signed by President Trump on Friday with an announcement to be made early next week according to sources familiar with the situation. The sources said a proposed cap to RIN prices, sought by the oil industry, is unlikely to be included in the deal, while the proposal to reallocate gallons impacted by small refinery waivers moves forward.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Nov shipment. The lowest fob offers for Nov 5-15 shipment were French at $199.15 and Ukrainian at $202.95 for Nov 15-25 shipment.
 The USDA’s monthly Oilseed Crushings report yesterday showed slightly lower than expected August soybean crush and lower than expected SBO stocks with 2018/19 total crush slightly above the USDA’s current estimate, while August corn for ethanol usage confirmed a slight decline in the USDA’s annual estimate is needed. Details of both reports can be found at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37527.
Weather There continue to be no widespread frost/freeze threats through the 16-day outlook period (Oct 18), but the likelihood of temps in the low to mid 30s tomorrow remains good for ND, with MN to see mainly low 40s. Rains look to fall off and on across the NW ½ to 2/3 of the Midwest the rest of this week and Sunday, with additional totals of .50-1†common north of a line from around Kansas City to Chicago to Toledo. Totals to the south of that line look to be generally under .30†in most cases. The 6-10 day period sees a large area of high pressure to take over and provide dry weather to the majority of the Midwest. Temps will run above average across the southeast ½ of the region for most of the next 4-5 days, with below average readings in the NW. There remains a good chance for temps to drop into the 32-38 degree range in most of ND tomorrow morning, with 40-44 degree temps in mot of MN. No other cold air threats are seen for the region in the next 10 days. The 11-16 day period shows a west to east flow aloft to bring below average precip and average temps to the Plains and Midwest during the period. In South America, rains in the next 5 days will be concentrated across the far NE Argentine growing regions of northern Corrientes, as well as into the Brazilian areas of RGDS, Santa Catarina and southern Parana. Totals of .50-1â€+ look to be common. Dry weather looks to dominate all of the Argentine growing regions in the 6-10 day period, with improved rains of .50-1†in most of the Brazilian growing regions.