Monday’s recovery above our short-term risk parameter at 48489 in the underlying Bitcoin Real Time Index discussed in 20-Sep’s Technical Blog was the first indication that Sep’s sell-off attempt from 52926 to 39624 was just a 3-wave and thus corrective affair. Yesterday’s continued recovery above our key risk parameter at 52926 confirmed this bullish fact and negates our specific peak/reversal count discussed in recent updates, leaving smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows in its wake at 46938 and 39624 the market is now required to sustain gains above to maintain a more immediate bullish count. These risk parameters may prove important given the market’s proximity at the upper-quarter of this year’s range where the daily log scale chart below shows 14-Apr’s 64858 high as a key resistant cap.
IF 20-Jul’s 29306 low COMPLETED a major bull market correction and the secular bull market is resuming from that point, then yesterday’s break above 52926 gives the bull the opportunity to PERFORM with continued and sustained, trendy, impulsive behavior higher. Such a requirement is important to acknowledge “up here” against the precarious upper recesses of the 6-month range. For if there’s a time and place for the market to fail once again, it is “up here” and now, and we will gauge this failure around specific levels like 46938 and especially 39624. Until and unless such weakness is proven, at least the 2-1/2-month trend is up and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration, including a resumption of the secular bull trend to new all-time highs above 64858.
The weekly log chart below provides a better perspective of the magnitude of the secular bull trend that now requires continued trendy, impulsive price action higher to reaffirm and a failure below 39624 to negate. The POTENTIAL for a bearish divergence in weekly momentum is easy to see, but this will only be CONFIRMED to the point of non-bullish action on a failure below 39624. This said, again, the market’s position still below Apr’s 64858 high and resistance presents a precarious situation where the risk/reward metrics of a resumed bullish policy are tenuous. Identifying bull risk is easy at 46938 and certainly 39624. The challenge is the expectation of a resumption of the secular bull trend above 64858 while that high and resistance remains intact.
These issues considered, any resumed bullish policy and exposure at this juncture is advised to be conservative, with a proven bust-out above 64858 required to ramp up aggressiveness. A failure below 46938 would be the first strike against a bullish punt that would warrant its cover. Subsequent and larger-degree weakness below 39624 will negate any more immediate bullish count and resurrect our major peak/correction/reversal count and a run at the Jun/Jul lows.
