-CFTC data delayed to Monday
-Argentine corn yields continue better than expected
-China to provide subsidies for high fertilizer/diesel costs
-Improving rains still expected, but models vary
NOTE: Due to the Juneteenth holiday, the CFTC’s COT data will be published on Monday instead of its usual Friday afternoon
release. Overall weather outlook ideas are not much changed with the GFS still looking for copious rains from IA/MN east over the next two weeks, while the Euro remains more reserved, but still showing better rainfall than seen in recent weeks. While the southern half of Wisconsin saw widespread, solid rains over the last 24 hours, coverage and amounts in the rest of the corn belt were quite limited. Obviously, verification or the lack there of the currently-forecasted rains will heavily influence trade activity next week. Grain market price volatility is likely to remain elevated, with the overnight “dead cat bounce†quite bouncy with soybeans up 50 cents and corn nearly 20 cents following yesterday’s massive sell-off.
ï‚· While the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange did not revise their estimate of the Argentine corn crop of 48 MMT, their weekly crop bulletin cited continued better-than-expected yields being seen across Cordoba and Santa Fe as harvest progresses. They estimate corn is 42% harvested nationwide. Wheat planting was able to accelerate following a drying out of previously wet conditions, jumping 20% in the latest week with 57% of the crop now planted.
ï‚· China announced they will grant $3.1 billion in subsidies to farmers to help deal with rising fertilizer and diesel costs.
ï‚· The CME raised maintenance margins for July contracts, effective close of business today, with corn now at $2325/contract vs $2125 previously and soybeans at $4500/contract vs $4100 previously.
ï‚· French soft wheat crop conditions were unchanged this week at 81% good/excellent and compares to 56% g/e at this time last year. Minor crop conditions were unchanged on the week, as well.
ï‚· With the sharp break in prices this week, a pickup in global grain buying was noted overnight. Three South Korean feedmills
bought a total of 261k tonnes of corn, all likely to be South American origin, priced from $295.21-$299.99/tonne c&f for AugSept shipment periods. Recent wheat tenders resulted in Iran buying 195-300k tonnes of wheat, likely Baltic
nations/Germany/Russian origin, at $333.37/tonne c&f, while the Philippines bought 150k tonnes of Australian wheat for JulyAug shipment at $321.50-$324.25/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Brazil published new regulations to allow importing approved GMO varieties of corn and soybeans easier, as any approved
varieties will be allowed to be comingled in the same ship, where previously they needed to be kept separate. In theory, this is
beneficial to import prospects for non-Mercosur imports in times of need.