-Grain prices continue to move lower despite condition declines
-Pick up in wheat buying interest amid weakening prices
-NOPA crush report today at 11:00 AM CT
-Good rains still in Midwest forecast
Despite the larger-than-expected crop condition declines yesterday afternoon, grain prices continued to move solidly lower
overnight, adding to the considerable sell-off on Monday.
ï‚· U.S. crop conditions certainly showed the effect of the recent heat/dryness across the belt with corn conditions declining 4% in good/excellent last week to 68% g/e (69% expected) and soybeans declining 5% g/e to 62% (65% expected). Considerable
declines were seen in the heart of the belt with corn conditions falling 14% g/e in IA, 11% in MN and 6% in IL, while soybean
conditions fell 12% in g/e in IA, 9% in MN and 10% in IL. Weather maps are still indicating improved rains are on the way
starting late-week and continuing during the 6-15 day outlook period. The GFS is showing 3â€+ potential across much of IA, IL,
IN, OH and southern WI over the next 2 weeks.
ï‚· U.S. winter wheat conditions declined 2% g/e last week to 48% vs expectations to be unchanged, with HRW and SRW conditions mostly steady, while white wheat conditions declined again. Harvest remains quite slow at only 4% complete vs 2% last week and 15% average. OK is only 10% harvested vs 41% average with TX 30% vs 55% average and USDA still showing no harvest complete for KS vs 7% average.
 Spring wheat conditions declined another 1% in g/e to 37%, while average expectations were for a 2% decline, and remain the 2nd lowest on record back to 1986. Hopefully the recent rains will help at least stabilize the crop, but it is clear reduced yields are to be expected for this year’s crop.
 For full details on yesterday’s Crop Progress update, please see our Market Insights post at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44216.
ï‚· The recent price decline has prompted a bit of an increase in wheat buying interest with Egypt, the Philippines and South Korea all tendering overnight. The lowest offer to Egypt for their Aug 21-31 shipment tender was $250.88/tonne fob for Russian wheat ($278.86/tonne c&f), with very active offers made by Russia, Ukraine and Romania as nearly 1.2 MMT was offered in total. The Philippines tendered for 205k tonnes of wheat for Aug-Sept shipment, while S. Korea bought 65k tonnes of feed wheat at $304.25/tonne c&f after tendering for 140k tonnes.
 Germany’s association of farm cooperatives ticked their estimate of the country’s wheat crop up to 23.0 MMT from 22.7 MMT previously and would be up from last year’s 22.1 MMT. The winter rapeseed crop is now seen at 3.67 MMT vs 3.62 MMT
previously and 3.5 MMT last year.
 NOPA crush will be out at 11:00 AM CT today. The average estimate of May soybean crush by NOPA members is 165.1 million bushels (160.0-170.4 million range of ideas), up from 160.3 million in April, but still 2.6% (4.8 million bushels) less than last year’s 169.6 million bushels. The average estimate of end May soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.713 billion pounds (1.630-1.830 billion range), up marginally from 1.702 billion in April, but solidly below last year’s 1.880 billion. However, May NOPA soybean oil stocks are estimated to be well above the most-recent 5-year low of 1.581 billion in 2019.
Weather
The GFS remains optimistic on rain opportunities across much of the belt starting late-week, while the European is not as much so for rains this week, but does have decent amounts in the 6-10 day outlook.