-Corn exports at bottom of expectations, but still solid
-Soybean exports lower than expected – short of “needed” pace
-Wheat exports at top of expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 6/10/21, were 1.544 MMT (60.8 million bushels), at the bottom of market expectations of 1.5-2.1 MMT (59.1-82.7 million bushels), but up slightly from the previous week’s 1.427 MMT (56.2 mil bu), significantly larger than last year’s same-week exports of 922k tonnes (36.3 mil bu) and, most importantly, continuing to run above the roughly 51 million bushels/week we estimate is needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s recently-raised 2.850 billion bushel export projection. While exports have slowed a bit from the torrid pace during March-May, there is little reason to doubt the USDA’s new projection given the overall pace of exports and remaining large amount of unshipped sales still on the books, including roughly 7.4 MMT for China. This week’s activity included 549k tonnes shipped to China. With 11 weeks remaining in the 202/21 marketing year, cumulative export inspections of 2.125 billion bushels are up 76% from last year’s 1.209 billion, while it must be kept in mind official Census Bureau corn exports through April (latest available) were running more than 90 million bushels larger than indicated by Inspections data and likely will be around 135-145 million bushels larger by the end of the year.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 129k tonnes (4.7 million bushels) were below market expectations of 150-300k tonnes (5.5-11.0 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 239k tonnes (8.8 mil bu), well below last year’s 435k tonnes (16.0 mil bu) and were a new marketing year low. Only 3k tonnes of soybeans were shipped to China for the week, leaving roughly 690k tonnes in unshipped sales still on the books. This week’s exports were also the first in six weeks to fall below the current average weekly “needed” pace of 6.9 million bushels based on the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection and only the 2nd week of the year below the “needed” pace overall. Cumulative export inspections of 2.087 billion bushels are still up 57% from last year’s 1.331 billion, while official Census Bureau exports through April were running roughly 80 million bushels higher than reflected by Inspections data.
U.S. wheat exports, in the full week of the 2021/22 marketing year, were 480k tonnes (17.6 million bushels), at the top end of market expectations of 275-500k tonnes (10.1-18.4 mil bu), little-changed from the previous week’s 494k tonnes (18.1 mil bu) and slightly less than last year’s same-week exports of 564k tonnes (20.7 mil bu). With USDA estimating 2021/22 exports at 900 million bushels vs last year’s 985 million, we estimate weekly shipments will need to average roughly 16.4 million bushels vs last year’s 17.8 million/week average. China currently has only 267k tonnes of U.S. wheat on the books for the new marketing year, with no shipment activity reported for the week.
