-Increased rain forecasts hammer grain markets overnight
-NOPA crush report tomorrow – continued modest rationing expected
-Indian monsoon rains progressing much faster than normal
-U.S. crop conditions expected to slip in this afternoon’s update
While still nearly a week away in the forecast, weather models turned much wetter, indicating good rains across the corn belt,
starting late in the week and continuing for much of next week, as well. As the rain forecasts change, so does market action,
resulting in the sharp price declines overnight. The extended temperature outlook is non-threatening, as well.
 Tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT, NOPA will release their monthly crush report. The average estimate of May soybean crush by NOPA members is 165.1 million bushels (160.0-170.4 million range of ideas), up from 160.3 million in April, but still 2.6% (4.8 million bushels) less than year ago NOPA crush of 169.6 million bushels. Based on the recent relationship between NOPA and U.S.-total crush, the average estimate implies June nationwide crush at roughly 175.0 million bushels vs 169.9 million in April and 179.6 million last year, which would put marketing year to date crush at 1.646 billion bushels vs 1.628 billion last year and require June-Aug crush to total 529 million bushels based on the USDA’s 2.175 billion bushel annual crush estimate, only 1.2% below last year’s record 536 million for the period. Over the last four months, again using the average trade estimate for May as a proxy, crush has been down 4.6% from last year. The average estimate of end May soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.713 billion pounds (1.630-1.830 billion range), up marginally from 1.702 billion in April, but solidly below last year’s 1.880 billion. However, May NOPA soybean oil stocks are estimated to be well above the most-recent 5-year low of 1.581 billion in 2019.
 U.S. corn and soybean crop conditions are expected to decline 2-3% in good/excellent this afternoon. Spring wheat conditions could begin to stabilize after last week’s rains.
 India’s annual monsoon rains are progressing significantly ahead of schedule, already having covered two-thirds of the country about 20 days earlier than normal.
 Indonesia palm/product exports in April were 2.64 MMT, down from 3.23 MMT in March, but in line with last year’s 2.65 MMT, while production in April was steady at 4.1 MMT and compared to 4.044 MMT last year. End April palm oil stocks of 3.140 MMT were little-changed from 3.202 MMT in March and compared to 3.373 MMT last year.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data, for the week ended 6/08/21, showed additional modest fund net selling in
corn of 14.3k contracts, lowering their net long to 276k contracts, while funds were also net sellers of 4.8k contracts in SBO (net long 81k) and 4.6k CBOT wheat (net short 1k). Funds were small net buyers in soybeans of 2.7k contracts (net long 141k) and 5.8k SBM (net long 27k), while being mostly net even for the week in KCBT wheat (net long 20k) and MPLS wheat (net long
14k).
Weather
Weekend rain activity was hit or miss with roughly 30% of the corn belt seeing .25-1.25†amounts, favoring eastern NE, eastern SD, western MN and IA and eastern IL. Weather models are clearly more optimistic on rain opportunities in the extended periods this morning (see tables on the following page).