-Old crop corn sales higher than expected – new crop sales very large on Chinese purchases
-Old crop soybean sales small net positive – new crop sales at bottom of expectations
-Wheat sales as expected
-SBM sales as expected – SBO sales minimal
U.S. old crop corn sales were a 7-week high at 556k tonnes (21.9 million bushels), solidly above market expectations for net cancellations of 100k tonnes to +400k tonnes, and again pushed total commitments to a level essentially allowing the USDA’s 2.775 billion bushel export projection to already be able to met with more than three months remaining in the marketing year. The larger than expected sales were helped by unexpected old crop purchases by China of 102k tonnes, with the largest sales going to Mexico with 380k tonnes. Total commitments are now at 2.700 billion bushels vs the USDA’s 2.775 billion bushel export projection, while official Census Bureau trade data through March showed actual exports running roughly 75 million bushels higher than indicated by Export Sales data. Outstanding (unshipped) old crop sales on the books of 816 million bushels compare to 504 million at this time last year. As long as China continues to aggressively ship their remaining old crop purchases, currently at 9.4 MMT, there is no reason to not expect 2020/21 exports to reach the USDA’s current projection and very well likely to exceed it if China ships the majority of their purchases. New crop sales were extremely strong, as expected, at 5.691 MMT (224 mil bu) as a result of the reported sales of 5.644 MMT to China (previously announced), while wire service-reported market expectations were 5.9-7.0 MMT. China officially had 10.7 MMT of new crop corn bought for 21/22 as of 5/20/21, with no new daily sales announcements being made since this week’s data “as of” date. Total new crop corn sales are now at 576 million bushels vs 133 million a year ago. Note, China canceled 111k tonnes of old crop sorghum sales for the week.
U.S. old crop soybean sales were minimal, but still net positive, at 56k tonnes (2.1 mil bu) vs market expectations of -200k to +200k tonnes, with net positive minimal sales to China of 7k tonnes for the week. Unshipped old crop sales to China are down to only 702k tonnes. Over the last three weeks, soybean sales have averaged 2.9 mil bu/week, for the most part keeping up with our estimated average “needed” sales pace of roughly 3.4 million/week in order to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Total commitments of 2.260 billion bushels remain up 46% from last year’s 1.549 billion. New crop sales were weak, though, at only 248k tonnes (9.1 mil bu), below market expectations of 225-600k tonnes, with only 20k tonnes sold to China for the week. Total new crop sales of 267 million bushels remain significantly ahead of last year’s 86 million bushels, though.
Old crop wheat sales were minimal, but net positive, at 30k tonnes (1.1 mil bu) vs market expectations of -75k to +180k tonnes and put 2020/21 total commitments at 944 million bushels vs 984 million a year ago. The USDA’s 965 million bushel export projection still appears within reach, even with only one full week remaining in the marketing year, as official Census Bureau trade data through March was running 44 million bushels larger than indicated by Export Sales data. New crop sales of 374k tonnes (13.7 mil bu) were within market expectations of 200-600k tonnes and put 2021/22 total commitments at 145 million bushels vs 111 million at this time last year.
Old crop soybean meal sales were 197k tonnes vs market expectations of 100-300k tonnes, while soybean oil sales were minimal at 1.7k tonnes vs expectations of -10k to +25k tonnes. The story remains the same for the products with SBM sales more than keeping up with USDA’s expectations, having averaged 159k tonnes over the last 6 weeks vs “needed” sales of 108k, while SBO sales remain extremely weak, averaging only 1.7k tonnes/week over the last 7 weeks vs “needed” sales of 15k tonnes. Clearly another USDA export projection reduction appears to be in the making.
