-Wheat tour day 2 results another record yield assessment
-Brazil corn crop ideas continue to shrink
-USDA reports more corn sales to China
-Cattle on Feed report tomorrow
-Good rains expected for US/some Brazilian growing areas
Day 2 results of the Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour (southwestern and south-central KS) reflected another record yield assessment for that leg of the tour at 56.7 bushels/acre, well above the most-recent 5-year average day 2 estimate of 42.7 bu/acre, above the 2019 estimate of 47.6 bu/acre and above the previous record of 49.3 bu/acre in 2016. This follows the day 1 average yield estimate of 59.2 bu/acre vs the previous record assessment for that part of the tour of 53.4 bu/acre in 2012. The tour will finish surveying fields from Wichita to Manhattan, KS today, releasing their estimate of the state’s crop later today. In this month’s Crop Production report, USDA estimated the KS yield at 48.0 bu/acre for a crop of 331 million bushels vs last year’s 281 mil bu (45.0 bu/acre). The record yield for KS was 57.0 bu/acre in 2016, which resulted in a crop of 467 million bushels when harvested area was 1.3 mil acres larger than estimated for this year’s crop.
 Brazilian oilseed association Abiove sees this year’s soybean crop at 137.5 MMT (USDA 136.0 MMT) with marketing year exports estimated at a record 85.6 MMT, up from last year’s 81.6 MMT but below USDA’s current estimate of 86.9 MMT.
 Agroconsult sharply lowered their estimate of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop to 66.2 MMT from 78.3 MMT previously and is significantly below CONAB’s latest estimate of 79.8 MMT, down sharply from last year’s 75.1 MMT and the lowest since 53.9 MMT three years ago. They put the total corn crop at 91.1 MMT vs CONAB’s 106.4 MMT estimate, USDA 102.0 MMT and last year’s 102.0 MMT. The 2017/18 crop was 82.0 MMT. Given the sharply lower crop outlook, they slashed corn export ideas this year to 26.0 MMT from 35.0 MMT previously, sharply below USDA’s current 35.0 MMT and last year’s 35.2 MMT. The 9.2 MMT
estimated decline in exports from last year equates to 362 million bushels.
ï‚· USDA reported another 1.224 MMT of new crop corn sales to China this morning, putting their total purchases at 10.7 MMT.
ï‚· Argentine port workers extended their strike until late Friday, with all grain shipping activity out of Rosario being halted, as they continue to protest the lack of COVID-19 vaccinations. They also announced another planned 48-hour strike beginning next Wednesday. Over the last week, four port workers reportedly died due to COVID.
 Friday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of May 1 cattle on feed is 103.9% of last year (103.0-105.7 range of ideas) and follows the previous month’s 105.3 (COVID comparison to last year). April placements are estimated at 122.5 (117.7-139.7 range) vs 128.3 in April, while April marketings are estimated at 133.0 (129.0-136.4 range) vs 101.5 in March. The large year-over-year expected gains are a result of the massive reductions last year, due to COVID, as April placements and marketings were 77.7 and 75.7, respectively. The 11.637 mil head on feed estimate as of May 1 would be below 2019’s 11.807 million, with estimated April marketings of 1.940 million comparable to 2019’s 1.928 million and estimated April placements of 1.754 million well below 2019’s 1.842 million.
ï‚· Algeria ended up buying around 400k tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat as a result of their recent tender, priced around $295/tonne c&f for July shipment and is viewed as likely being French supplies. In their previous purchase of 300k tonnes on April 28, the average price paid was $316.50/tonne c&f.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43880 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn old crop sales of 278k tonnes (10.9 million bushels) fell within market expectations of -300k to +400k tonnes and followed last week’s net cancellations of 4.5 million bushels. Old crop net activity by China for the week included cancellations of 82k tonnes. New crop sales were huge, as expected, at 4.062 MMT (159.9 mil bu) with China accounting for 3.740 MMT – exactly in line with what was reported through the daily announcements for the period.
ï‚· Old crop soybean sales of 84k tonnes (3.1 mil bu) were within market expectations of -200k to +200k tonnes and, while continuing to run at rather limited levels, are keeping up with the roughly 3.4 million/week average “needed” pace. New crop sales were minimal at only 96k tonnes (3.5 mil bu) vs market expectations of 100-400k.
ï‚· Old crop wheat sales of 121k tonnes (4.4 mil bu) were towards the upper end of market expectations of -75k to +150k tonnes and were enough to keep the USDA’s 965 million bushel export target in sight. New crop sales were modest at 318k tonnes (11.7 mil bu), within expectations of 150-350k tonnes and brings 21/22 total commitments to 131 mil bu vs new crop sales at this time last year of 93 million.
ï‚· Old crop soybean meal sales of 189k tonnes were within expectations of 50-300k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 75k and better than the most-recent 4-week average of 141k. Soybean oil sales were net cancellations of 4.5k tonnes for old crop and zero new crop vs expectations of -10k to +25k tonnes for the week.
Weather
Activity across U.S. growing areas in the last 24 hours included .25-1.25†of the corn belt with 20% coverage (western belt), .25-1.25†25% coverage central/southern plains and .10-.75†(locally 3â€+) 20% coverage of northern plains. Slightly lower amounts in safrinha corn area forecast for 1-5 day period, with good rains in 6-10 day period for most areas, but lightest in Mat Grosso.