-Old crop corn sales net positive, new crop sales large as expected
-Soybean sales net positive old crop, minimal new crop
-Old crop wheat sales net positive, new crop as expected
-SBM sales as expected, SBO net cancellations
U.S. corn old crop sales of 278k tonnes (10.9 million bushels) fell within market expectations of -300k to +400k tonnes and followed last week’s net cancellations of 4.5 million bushels. Old crop net activity by China for the week included cancellations of 82k tonnes, with the largest purchases going to Mexico with 283k tonnes. China now has 10.1 MMT of unshipped corn still officially on the books for 2020/21 and has been shipping an average of 612k tonnes/week over the last 7 weeks, including 1.0 MMT shipped in the last week. Total old crop commitments of 2.678 billion bushels are up 73% from last year, with sales only needing to average roughly 2 million bushels/week through the end of August to allow the USDA’s 2.775 billion bushel export projection to be reached. New crop sales were huge, as expected, at 4.062 MMT (159.9 mil bu) with China accounting for 3.740 MMT – exactly in line with what was reported through the daily announcements for the period. Total new crop commitments are now at 358 million bushels vs 131 million at this time last year.
Old crop soybean sales of 84k tonnes (3.1 mil bu) were within market expectations of -200k to +200k tonnes and, while continuing to run at rather limited levels, are keeping up with the roughly 3.4 million/week average “needed” pace we estimate is needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Over the last six weeks, old crop sales averaged 4.8 million bushels/week, while there has only been one week of outright net cancellations so far. This week’s activity included minor net cancellations by China of 8k tonnes, while they still have 708k tonnes of unshipped purchases officially on the books. Total commitments of 2.258 billion bushels compare to 1.526 billion at this time last year. New crop sales were minimal at only 96k tonnes (3.5 mil bu) vs market expectations of 100-400k, bringing 2021/22 total sales to 258 million bushels vs 78 million at this time last year.
Old crop wheat sales of 121k tonnes (4.4 mil bu) were towards the upper end of market expectations of -75k to +150k tonnes and were enough to keep the USDA’s 965 million bushel export target in sight with only two full weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year. While total commitments are at 942 mil bu, down 3% from last year’s 976 million vs USDA estimating annual exports unchanged on the year, the difference between official Census Bureau exports and that reflected by Export Sales data keeps the USDA’s estimate on target. New crop sales were modest at 318k tonnes (11.7 mil bu), within expectations of 150-350k tonnes and brings 21/22 total commitments to 131 mil bu vs new crop sales at this time last year of 93 million. There was no activity of note by China for the week.
Old crop soybean meal sales of 189k tonnes were within expectations of 50-300k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 75k and better than the most-recent 4-week average of 141k, while also being solidly above the roughly 113k tonnes/week we estimate is needed based on the USDA export projection. Total commitments are up a minimal 0.5% from last year, generally keeping pace with the USDA’s export projection reflecting a 1.2% increase for the year. New crop sales were 78k tonnes, with 21/22 total sales now at 560k tonnes vs new crop sales of 235k last year. Soybean oil sales were net cancellations of 4.5k tonnes for old crop and zero new crop vs expectations of -10k to +25k tonnes for the week. Over the last six weeks, soybean oil sales have TOTALED only 10.0k tonnes vs the roughly 11k tonnes/week average we estimate is needed based on the USDA’s export projection, as it appears another reduction in their estimate may be needed next month, as well.
