-Wheat tour pegs record Day 1 yield estimate
-USDA reports another large new crop corn sale to China
-Argentine port workers strike
-CONAB confirms notable ethanol production decline expectation
-EU wheat crop ideas raised
-Attention heavy on Brazil rain forecast
 The Wheat Quality Council’s Day 1 tour of the northern counties of Kansas resulted in the highest-ever average yield estimate for the initial leg of the tour at 59.2 bushels/acre, sharply above the most-recent 5-year Day 1 average yield estimate of 41.9 bu/acre and the 2019 Day 1 estimate 46.9 bu/acre. Due to COVID, there was not a HRW wheat tour last year. Since the start of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour in 2000, the previous highest Day 1 yield estimate was 53.4 bu/acre in 2012. This year’s tour is occurring two weeks later than normal, though, so the further development of the crop may impact yield perceptions to some degree. The tour did note some disease concern, particularly strip rust, in some areas. Today’s tour will look at fields in southwestern and south-central Kansas.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of another 1.360 MMT of new crop, 2021/22, corn to China this morning, bringing total reported purchases now to 9.5 MMT. USDA also reported 143k tonnes of soybeans were sold to Mexico for 2021/22, as well.
ï‚· Argentine grain port workers went on strike protesting the lack of COVID-19 vaccinations.
 The Argentine Ag Ministry estimated farmers have sold 18.5 MMT of this year’s soybean crop, an increase of 1.2 MMT for the week, but remains well below last year’s sales of 22.3 MMT at this time. Farmer sales of corn reached 27.9 MMT, up 1.6 MMT from the previous week, and remain ahead of year ago sales of 24.4 MMT.
ï‚· CONAB estimated Brazilian sugar cane crush, in the key center-south region, will decline 4.6% from last year to 574.8 MMT, the lowest since 2018/19. Accordingly, total ethanol production this year is estimated to decline 7.4% from last year to 28.36 billion liters (7.5 billion gallons), with part of the expected sugar-based decline being offset by higher corn-based ethanol production, which is seen rising 500 million liters (130 mil gallons) from last year to 3.5 billion liters (925 mil gallons).
 Brazilian ag exporter association Anec raised their estimate of the country’s May soybean exports to 16.1 MMT from 15.3 MMT previously and compares to April all-time record exports of 17.4 MMT and last year’s 14.1 MMT. They expect no corn exports in the month of May.
 Coceral raised their estimate of 2021/22 EU-27 soft wheat production to 130.9 MMT from 126.6 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 118.7 MMT. Including the UK, they see the crop at 145.8 MMT vs 141.5 MMT previously and 128.1 MMT last year. They left their estimate of the EU+UK rapeseed crop unchanged at 17.6 MMT, which would be up slightly from last year’s 17.2 MMT. EU corn production ideas were raised to 64.7 MMT vs 63.5 MMT previously and 62.5 MMT last year.
ï‚· The Malaysian palm oil export tax will remain at the highest-allowable level of 8% for June for the 6th consecutive month, with the reference price of 4,627 ringgit/tonne holding significantly above the 3,450 ringgit/tone level necessary to allow the tax to be reduced.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of Argentine corn at +268.25 CZ1 (~$319.47/tonne) for August shipment. No U.S. corn was offered in the tender, while Brazilian corn was offered at +292.50 CZ1 and South African corn at +288.00 CZ1.
 Germany’s ag ministry estimated total winter wheat area is up 3.0% this year to 2.83 million hectares (7.0 mil acres) with winter rapeseed area up 3.9% at 991k hectares (2.4 mil acres).
Weather
Good rains remain in the forecast for safrinha corn areas of Parana and MGDS, with light amounts possible for Mato Grosso in the 1-5 day period. Precip activity over the last 24 hours included .25-1.25†of the corn belt with 25% coverage, along with similar amounts and 30% coverage of the Central/Southern Plains. A good shot of rains is expected for the Northern Plains over the coming days with .25-1.25†and 65% coverage in the forecast.