Today’s NOPA soybean crush data for April showed a greater degree of demand rationing taking place than expected based on the average trade estimate. With the lower than expected crush, though, soybean oil stocks also were less than expected and the lowest for the month since 2015.
NOPA reported soybean crush in April by its members was 160.3 million bushels, well below average market expectations of 168.7 million, down sharply from 178.0 million bushels in March and 6.7% (11.5 million bushels) below last year’s April NOPA crush of 171.8 million bushels. Based on the recent relationship between NOPA and nationwide crush data, total U.S. crush for the month would be implied around 169.6 million bushels, down 7.5% (13.8 million bushels) from last year’s 183.4 million bushels and would put 2020/21 marketing year-to-date (Sept-Apr) crush at 1.471 billion bushels vs 1.449 billion last year. Based on the USDA’s 2.190 billion bushel annual crush estimate, May-Aug crush would need to total 720 million bushels to reach the USDA’s annual target, nearly exactly in line with last year’s 716 million bushels during the final four months of the marketing year. With combined crush over the last three months down 29 million bushels from last year, expecting/achieving unchanged year-over-year crush during May-Aug appears increasingly unlikely, potentially adding some bushels back to the old crop balance sheet. Certainly the reduced crush pace is supportive for soybean oil, in particular, but it does present a minor ray of hope for the old crop soybean balance sheet in being able to squeak by with minimal stocks.
NOPA reported its members produced 1.890 billion pounds of soybean oil in April vs 2.107 billion in March and 1.986 billion pounds last year April, with the average soybean oil yield remaining historically high at 11.79 pounds/bushel vs 11.84 in March and 11.56 last year. Marketing year to date total soybean oil production by NOPA members of 14.375 billion pounds compares to 13.971 billion last year.
With the lower than expected crush and, subsequently, reduced level of soybean oil production, NOPA reported end April soybean oil stocks held by its members was only 1.702 billion pounds, down from 1.771 billion in March, below average market expectations of 1.785 billion pounds, significantly below year ago April stocks of 2.111 billion pounds and the lowest for the month since 2015. During the 2016-2020 period, April NOPA soybean oil stocks ranged from 1.725-2.111 billion pounds averaging 1.932 billion pounds the last five years. Implied soybean oil “off-take” (last month’s stocks + this month’s production – this month’s stocks) among NOPA members was implied at 1.959 billion pounds in April vs 2.093 billion in March and 1.774 billion pounds last year. Based on the recent-months’ relationship between NOPA and nationwide soybean oil stocks, total stocks at the end of April would be implied around 2.190 billion pounds vs 2.245 billion in March and 2.601 billion last year.
NOPA reported its members produced 3.819 million tons of soybean meal in April vs 4.233 million in March and 4.045 million tons last year April, while exporting 689k tons of soybean meal in the month vs 937k in March and 891k tons last year.
