-China reaffirms large corn crop expectations – modestly lower new crop imports
-China sees slowing corn demand growth in 21/22
-Brazil conservatively lowers corn crop estimate/holds soybean estimate steady
-USDA reports routine corn sale to Mexico
-USDA reports at 11:00 AM CT – trade estimate summary included
USDA monthly WASDE and Crop Production reports will be out today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43806. A summary of the average trade estimate is on page 3.
 Brazil lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn crop to 79.8 MMT from 82.6 MMT previously but, for now, remains above last year’s 75.1 MMT crop. They slightly raised their estimate of the first corn crop to 24.7 MMT from 24.5 MMT last month (25.7 MMT last year) as the total corn crop is now estimated at 106.4 MMT vs 109.0 MMT last month and 102.6 MMT last year. Despite the reduction, they left their estimate of new crop corn exports unchanged this month at 35.0 MMT, essentially unchanged from last year’s 35.1 MMT, while USDA was last at 39.0 MMT and likely coming down in today’s update. We would note many private ideas of the Brazilian corn crop are moving below 100 MMT, with AgRural this week lowering their
estimate to 95.5 MMT (safrinha 69.6 MMT).
 Brazil left their estimate of this year’s soybean crop essentially unchanged at 135.4 MMT (135.5 MMT previously/USDA 136.0 MMT/128.5 MMT last year), with soybean exports estimated at 85.6 MMT vs USDA last at 86.7 MMT and last year’s 81.6 MMT.
ï‚· Brazilian ag exporter association Anec sharply raised their estimate of soybean exports in May to 15.3 MMT from previous ideas of 12.0 MMT and would compare to 14.1 MMT last year and 17.4 MMT in April. Based on the new estimate, Feb-May marketing year to date exports would be 48.8 MMT vs 44.7 MMT during the same period last year.
 China’s monthly update of balance sheet factors supported previous ideas by the USDA ag attaché and China’s think tank for a sizable increase in corn planted area and, accordingly, production expected for 2021/22. The Ag Ministry estimated corn area up 3.4% from last year to 42.7 million hectares (105.4 mil acres), with production expected to rise to 272 MMT from last year’s 261 MMT. Private ideas within China expressed the view the acreage increase is likely to be even larger given indications of very strong seed sales this spring. China put 2021/22 corn imports at 20.0 MMT vs this year’s
estimated 22.0 MMT, which clearly still appears much too low (likely to be around 30 MMT) with total corn consumption in 21/22 bumping up to 293.7 MMT from 289.2 MMT estimated for this year, with the 4.5 MMT increase reflecting a slowing increase from this year’s 10.9 MMT jump from 2019/20. China left their 2020/21 estimated corn stocks change from last year unchanged from last month at down 6.5 MMT and sees 2021/22 corn stocks declining by only 1.9 MMT from this year.
 China’s new crop soybean balance sheet ideas put 21/22 production at 18.7 MMT vs 19.6 MMT last year, with area estimated to be down 5.4%. New crop soybean imports were estimated at 102.0 MMT vs this year’s 100.4 MMT, which were revised up from last month’s estimate of 98.1 MMT. China sees new crop total soybean demand at 117.2 MMT vs this year’s 116.3 MMT, with 2021/22 soybean stocks estimated to rise 3.3 MMT from this year. Moreover, China now sees 2020/21 soybean stocks up 3.6 MMT from 2019/20 vs last month’s ideas stocks would be up 1.4 MMT and follows 2019/20’s 7.9 MMT increase in stocks. China sees 21/22 total vegoil production at 29.6 MMT vs 29.0 MMT this year (28.5 MMT previous), with total vegoil imports
in 21/22 declining to 8.5 MMT from 9.33 MMT this year (unchanged from last month). Total vegoil demand in 21/22 was estimated at 35.9 MMT vs 35.4 MMT this year and 34.2 MMT in 2019/20.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 100k tonnes of corn to Mexico this morning, with 30k old crop and 70k new crop.
Weather
NOTE: We have added weather model-estimated precip summary tables to our daily comments. The tables summarize the GFS and European model’s estimated precip by region and by period, along with the change in estimated precip from the forecast 24 hours prior. The U.S. table below compiles estimated state-average precip forecasts into regional averages: WCB (NE, MN, IA, MO), ECB (IL, IN, OH, WI), S. Plains (KS, OK, TX), N. Plains (ND, SD). On the following page, tables including precip estimates by state, as well as Brazilian safrinha corn areas and Ukraine production areas are also available. The forecast for Brazilian safrinha corn areas remains mostly dry through the 15-day period for top-producer Mato Grosso, although decent rains remain the 6-10 forecast for Parana, while rains were added for MGDS during the period, as well. Overall, the safrinha crop will continue to suffer based on the current forecast.
Precip activity over the last 24 hours was very limited with the corn belt and northern plains essentially dry. Good rains were seen across the Southern Plains again with .25-.75†in most of OK and areas east of the panhandle in TX, while central KS saw light rains.