-Old crop soybean sales higher than expected – 7-week high
-Corn sales within expectations
-Wheat sales as expected old crop/bottom of ideas new crop
-SBM sales as expected/SBO sales minimal
Old crop soybean sales of 293k tonnes (10.7 million bushels) were above market expectations for net cancellations of 100k tonnes to sales of 200k tonnes, were a 7-week high and, most importantly, above the roughly 3.8 million bushels/week we estimate is needed through the end of August based on the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. While the largest buyer of the week was Mexico with 116k tonnes, China also was a buyer of 68k tonnes of old crop soybeans. Given their limited loadings of late and 766k tonnes of unshipped sales on the books, their buying of old crop soybeans in any amount is surprising. Total commitments of 2.246 billion bushels compare to 1.435 billion at this time last year. New crop sales of 439k tonnes (16.1 mil bu) were towards the upper end of market expectations of 200-500k tonnes and included 198k to China and 186k to unknown, bringing 21/22 total commitments to 244 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of only 39 million bushels.
Old crop corn sales of 521k tonnes (20.5 mil bu) were within market expectations of 400k-1.0 MMT, but with total commitments already at 2.666 billion bushels vs the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel export projection, any level of positive sales further indicates the USDA’s estimate is too low. China was a minor net buyer of 25k tonnes last week, with the largest sales going to Mexico with 401k tonnes. China still has 12.5 MMT (492 mil bu) in unshipped corn sales officially on the books. We continue to see 2020/21 exports proving closer to 2.800 billion bushels. New crop sales of 553k tonnes (21.8 mil bu) were at the top end of market expectations of 100-500k tonnes, bringing 21/22 commitments to 106 mil bu vs new crop sales last year at this time of 107 million bushels. This week’s activity included 361k tonnes to unknown.
Old crop wheat sales of 224k tonnes (8.2 mil bu) were within expectations of 0-300k tonnes and better than the roughly 3.1 million bushels/week we estimate is needed over the final five full weeks of 2020/21 to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection. Over the last five weeks, wheat sales have averaged 5.4 million bushels/week. Total commitments of 940 million bushels compare to 953 million last year, but through February official trade data, wheat exports were running more than 50 million bushels larger than Export Sales. New crop sales of 238k tonnes (8.7 mil bu) were at the bottom of market expectations of 200-450k tonnes, bringing 21/22 total commitments to 95 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 73 million.
Soybean meal sales of 164k tonnes were within expectations of 50-250k tonnes and have averaged 132k tonnes/week over the last six weeks, keeping up with the USDA’s export projection which will require sales to average roughly 118k tonnes/week through the end of September. Total commitments are essentially unchanged from last year vs USDA projecting a minor 1% increase for the year. New crop sales of 97k tonnes brought 21/22 total sales to 386k tonnes vs 177k in new crop sales at this time last year. Soybean oil sales were minimal at 3.6k tonnes vs expectations of -10k to +50k tonnes, with sales over the last three weeks averaging 2.6k tonnes/week vs average “needed” sales of roughly 16k tonnes/week. Soybean oil sales are clearly falling short of USDA expectations with total commitments now down 34% from last year vs USDA projecting exports down only 12% from last year.
