-Canada new crop wheat/canola acreage estimates lower than expected
-USDA attache sees Ukraine corn production/exports up solidly
-US corn/soybean planting advancing as expected, HRW conditions decline
-Romania lowest in Egypt wheat tender
May corn hit limit up 40 cents/bushel overnight, before pulling back solidly into the break to finish up 15.5 cents. New crop corn gave back solid overnight gains to finish slightly lower heading into the day session. May soybeans were up nearly 40 cents at one point, as well, but pulled back to up 8.25, with similar action in CBOT wheat trading up 33 cents at one point, but finishing up 8 cents/bushel. May soybean oil finished the overnight session limit up 2.50, while July was up 2.06.
 Statistics Canada’s first official estimates of 2021/22 planted acreage this morning put all wheat area at 23.3 million acres vs the average estimate of 23.7 million (22.5-24.7 million range of ideas) and would be down from last year’s 24.98 million. Canola area was estimated at 21.5 million acres vs 22.6 million expected (21.8-23.4 million range) vs 20.78 million last year, while oat area was estimated at 3.6 million acres vs 3.6 million expected (2.9-3.8 million range) and 3.84 million last year. Durum wheat area was estimated at 5.7 million acres vs 5.5 million expected (4.4-5.9 million range) vs 5.69 million last year, while spring wheat area was estimated at 16.3 million acres vs 17.93 million last year. Other planted area estimates included barley at 8.6 million acres vs 8.0 million expected (6.8-8.8 million range) and 7.56 million last year, soybeans at 5.3 million vs 5.4 million expected (4.8-5.6 million range) and 5.07 million last year and corn 3.6 million vs 3.6 million expected
(3.5-3.8 million range) and 3.56 million last year. Combined planted area for these six crops was estimated by Stats Can at 66.0 million acres vs the sum of the average trade estimates of 66.9 million and compares to last year’s combined area of 65.8 million acres.
 The USDA ag attaché in Ukraine expects a solid increase in corn production this year, weather willing, to 33.5 MMT from last year’s droughtimpacted 28.1 MMT, which USDA is currently reflecting at 29.5 MMT. The reason for the notable difference in old crop production ideas is the attaché’s view of corn area at 4.93 mil hectares (12.2 mil acres) vs USDA’s official estimate of 5.4 mil hectares (13.3 mil acres). The attaché sees corn area rising 4.4% this year. With the increased crop ideas, the attaché pencils new crop corn exports at 27.6 MMT vs this year’s 24.0 MMT, but still a bit below 2019/20’s 38.9 MMT. For wheat, an increase in production is expected this year, as well, but a bit more modest to 26.8 MMT from 25.8 MMT last year (USDA 25.5 MMT), with a solid increase in exports expected to 18.5 MMT from this year’s 15.5 MMT, which the attaché sees much lower than USDA’s official old crop export ideas of 17.5 MMT.
 Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress update showed the U.S. corn crop 17% planted as of Sunday, in line with expectations but slightly behind 20% average and last year’s 24%. MO is slow at 20% vs 44% average given the recent rains, but the rest of the belt is mostly within a few points of average. Soybean planting is 8% complete, also in line with expectations, but above average of 5%. IL is 18% planted vs 6% avg, IN 9% vs 4% avg and OH 8% vs 2% avg. IA is 6% vs 3% avg.
ï‚· Winter wheat crop conditions declined 4% in good/excellent last week to 49% g/e (52% expected) as the recent cold snap pushed OK conditions down 9% and TX down 10%, but KS was unchanged. SRW conditions improved last week with MO and AR up 4% and IL up 2%.
ï‚· Spring wheat planting remains quite fast, now at 28% complete vs 19% average and 13% last year. ND is 22% planted vs 10% avg, while SD is 63% vs 39% average.
 For full details on yesterday’s Crop Progress update, please see our Market Insights post at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43700.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 102k tonnes of corn to unknown this morning, 51k old and 51k new crop.
 Indonesia’s crude palm oil export tax will rise to $144/tonne in May from $116/tonne this month, while the export levy, used to support the biodiesel industry, will stay at $255/tonne.
ï‚· Taiwan tendered for 65k tonnes of optional origin corn for July 9-28 shipment and likely will be Argentine.
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for May-June shipment, with offers due by tomorrow.
ï‚· After the close in Friday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for August 11-20 shipment. All four of the lowest offers were Romanian at $285.84-$291.17/tonne c&f ($268.47-$273.80 fob), with the next lowest offer Russian at $294.68/tonne c&f ($277.00 fob). Ukraine was offered at $281/tonne fob.
Weather
Precip activity over the last 24 hours was limited to scattered activity in MN and SE ND, with nearly all of the corn belt and central/southern plains dry. The coming 5-day period is expected to bring .50-1.5†amounts and 40% corn belt coverage, with the heaviest amounts in MO and IL, IN and OH, while lighter amounts/coverage are expected in the western belt. The 6-10 day outlook shows better rain potential for the western belt, while the east is dry. The central/southern plains are expected to see .25-1.25†over the next five days with 35% coverage (eastern halves of KS, OK, TX), while limited rains are expected throughout the 6-15 day period. The northern plains look to continue struggling with limited precip opportunities, but some opportunities are in the 11-15 day period.