-Corn exports very strong – higher than expected
-Soybean exports as expected – keep up with “needed” pace
-Wheat exports within expectations – better than “needed” pace
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 4/22/21, were very strong at 1.951 MMT (76.8 million bushels), above market expectations of 1.1-1.7 MMT (43.3-66.9 million bushels), up from the previous week’s 1.559 MMT (61.4 mil bu) and a three-week high. While some continue to question the pace of exports to China, there is absolutely no doubt the overall pace of exports of late has been running extremely heavy and more than enough to justify/exceed the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel export projection. In fact, over the last nine weeks, U.S. corn exports have averaged 75 million bushels/week vs the roughly 50 million/week we estimate is needed over the remaining 19 weeks of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s projection. Moreover, there are still more than 1.0 billion bushels in unshipped sales currently on the books, double remaining sales on the books at this time last year. Cumulative export inspections of 1.623 billion bushels are up 84% from last year’s 883 million, while it also must be kept in mind official Census Bureau exports through February were running roughly 50 million bushels larger than Inspections. This week’s activity included 633k tonnes of corn shipped to China, leaving them with roughly 12.4 MMT in unshipped purchases on the books officially, which may be closer to 14.0 MMT when taking into account sales to unknown, as well. As long as China ships the majority of their purchases by the end of August, we expect 2020/21 final exports to be closer to 2.800 billion bushels than the USDA’s current 2.675 billion bushel projection.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 234k tonnes (8.6 million bushels) were within market expectations of 150-300k tonnes (5.5-11.0 mil bu), little-changed from the previous week’s 222k tonnes (8.2 mil bu) and, most importantly, continue to run in line with the average “needed” pace of roughly 8.2 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Cumulative export inspections of 2.031 billion bushels are up 66% from last year’s 1.227 billion. However, through February Census Bureau data, official exports were running roughly 66 million bushels larger than Inspections, putting actual cumulative exports closer to 2.100 billion bushels with 19 weeks remaining in 2020/21. With around 180 million bushels of unshipped sales still on the books, soybean sales only need to run at minimal levels through the end of August to allow the USDA’s projection to be reached. This week’s activity again included only minimal shipments to China of 8k tonnes, though, while they still have at least 700k tonnes of unshipped purchases on the books. Whether or not China decides to actually ship these remaining purchases or pushes them to new crop or outright cancels some will be critical for final level of 2020/21 exports.
U.S wheat exports last week of 564k tonnes (20.7 million bushels) were within market expectations of 400-625k tonnes (14.7-23.0 mil bu) and continue to run at a pace easily justifying the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection. Over the last 7 weeks, wheat exports averaged 20.8 million bushels/week, a solid pickup from the 15.1 million/week average during the prior 8-week period and above the roughly 14-15 million/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s projection. Through official February trade data, wheat exports were running roughly 35 million bushels larger than Inspections, while annual flour/product exports are estimated at roughly 20 million bushels, which count in the annual wheat export total, as well. As long as a “normal” shipping pace is maintained over the final five full weeks of 2020/21, we see no problem reaching the USDA’s export estimate at this time.
