-Argentina says higher grain export taxes being considered
-Optimistic early Ukraine grain crop ideas continue
-USDA reports new crop soybean sale
-China wheat reserve auction limited
-Brazil safrinha rain chance remain limited
ï‚· An Argentine government official said they are considering raising export taxes on grains if needed to keep prices down, once again opening the potential for limiting/controlling exports and adding further uncertainty to farmers already unnerved by waffling policy moves. Current export tax rates sit at 33% for soybeans, 31% for SBM and SBO and 12% for corn and wheat.
 Ukraine’s Institute of Agrarian Economy expects higher grain production this year with the wheat crop estimated at 28.5 MMT vs 25.5 MMT last year and corn at 31.1 MMT vs 29.5 MMT last year. These ideas are lower than other early projections by the government of 30.0 MMT wheat/30.3 MMT corn, while other private ideas have been as high as 35 MMT for corn.
ï‚· Ideas on U.S. planting progress this afternoon are 16-18% corn, 5-6% soybeans, 27-28% spring wheat.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 120k tonnes of new crop, 2021/22, soybeans to unknown this morning.
ï‚· As with other global ag markets last week, Black Sea wheat values jumped sharply by $15-$17/tonne for 12.5% protein supplies with Russian wheat for prompt shipment around $265/tonne fob, while Ukrainian wheat is trading around $251-$256/tonne fob. Ukraine corn was up $7/tonne last week to $262-$267/tonne fob.
 Interest in China’s state wheat reserve auctions continues to decline as feeders are said to have ample stocks, while the
government’s recent moves to limit those who can participate in the auctions to actual end users have clearly been effective.
Only 312k tonnes of the 4.020 MMT (7.8%) of wheat offered this week was bought with the average price paid ticking down to
2,399 yuan/tonne ($369.82/tonne, $10.06/bushel) from 2,401 yuan/tonne the previous week. Some feel feed producers are now largely covered for needed wheat supplies until the new crop becomes available in late June/July.
ï‚· South Korea bought 65k tonnes of South American corn at $305.99/tonne c&f for July shipment.
 Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed report showed on-feed as of April 1 at 105.3% of last year, lower than average
expectations of 106.1 (105.0-107.5 range of ideas) as the year-over-year comparison was strong due to COVID impacts a year
ago. March placements of 128.3 were solidly below average expectations of 133.7, while March marketings of 101.5 were above expectations of 101.1.
 CME raised maintenance margins for May wheat, effective after today’s close, to $2100/contract from $1900 previously.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended Tuesday, 4/20/21, showed funds net sellers of 18k contracts in corn vs wire service estimates during the period of net buying of 59k contracts (which only includes futures), with funds net long 384k contracts vs the current record of 429k. Funds were net buyers on the week in all other grain markets with 30.3k soybeans (net long 172.5k), 14.8k CBOT wheat (net long 1.6k), 7.7k KCBT wheat (net long 8.7k), 2.4k MPLS wheat (net long 12.1k), 8.8k SBO (net long 90.0k) and 4.2k SBM (net long 48.0k). Since last Tuesday, wire services estimate funds have bought roughly 92k contracts in corn, 24k soybeans, 29k CBOT wheat, 19k SBO and 6k SBM.
ï‚· After the close in Friday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for August 11-20 shipment, with offers due by
tomorrow.
Weather
Precip activity over the last 72 hours included .50-2.0†of roughly 15% of the corn belt of the heavier amounts which were mostly in MO, but lighter amounts were seen across. S. MN, N. IA, C/S IL and much of IN and OH. The central/southern plains saw good rains across the eastern halves of OK and TX, while KS and NE were mostly dry. The coming 5-day period is expected to bring .50-1.5†amounts and 40% corn belt coverage, with the heaviest amounts in MO and IL, IN and OH, while lighter amounts/coverage are expected in the western belt. The 6-10 day outlook shows better rain potential for the western belt, while the east is dry. The central/southern plains are expected to see .25-1.25†over the next five days with 40% coverage (eastern halves of KS, OK, TX), while limited rains are expected throughout the 6-15 day period. The northern plains look to continue struggling with limited precip opportunities.
Limited rain opportunities for Brazil’s safrinha crop continue, with at least half of the crop experiencing stressful dryness at this time