-Ideas of reduced Chinese corn/SBM feed demand continue
-NOPA crush report today at 11:00 AM CT
-Export Sales generally disappointing
-Rains added to Southern Plains forecast
 Heavy substitution of wheat for corn in Chinese feed rations continues according to local analysts, with corn prices holding around a 17% premium to wheat in the major hog-producing province of Shandong. Some estimate feed rations have been shifted to replace roughly 15% of corn with wheat, which has also prompted a reduction in the soybean meal mix in feed to 20% from 23% given the higher protein content in wheat than corn. Some have deemed overall meal demand currently as “quite bad†due to the combination of rising African swine fever cases, with ideas the breeding herd in northern China may have been reduced by at least 20% of late, and the increase in wheat in the feed mix.
ï‚· Strategie Grains left their 2021/22 EU grain crop ideas essentially unchanged with soft wheat production estimated at 129.6 MMT vs 119.4 MMT last year, corn 65.1 MMT vs 62.6 MMT last year and barley 54.0 MMT vs 55.4 MMT last year. They slightly raised their estimate of old crop EU soft wheat exports by 200k tonnes to 25.4 MMT and see new crop exports holding mostly steady near that level.
 APK-Inform expects a large increase in Ukrainian sunflower seed production in 2021/11 to a record 16.4 MMT from last year’s 14.3 MMT, with area expected to increase 6%, prompting a sharp increase in sunoil production to over 7.0 MMT vs last year’s 6.0 MMT. Accordingly, new crop sunoil exports could rise to 6.5 MMT from this year’s estimated 5.6 MMT.
ï‚· Malaysia will leave the crude palm oil export tax unchanged in May at 8%.
ï‚· The Philippines passed on their recent tender for 165k tonnes of feed wheat citing prices being too high. They subsequently issued another tender, this time for 380k tonnes of milling (240k tonnes) and feed wheat (140k tonnes) for June-Sept shipment with offers due by tomorrow.
ï‚· South Korea bought 65k tonnes of U.S. corn for prompt shipment at $293.79/tonne c&f.
ï‚· NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush report today at 11:00 AM CT. The average trade estimate for March soybean crush by NOPA members is 179.2 million bushels (155.2 million Feb/181.4 million last year) with an extremely wide range of ideas of 165.0-189.6 million bushels. The average estimate of end March soybean oil stocks among NOPA members is 1.822 billion pounds, up from 1.757 billion in February, with a range of ideas of 1.717-1.919 billion pounds.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43580 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· Old crop soybean sales were minimal at 91k tonnes (3.3 million bushels), but fell within market expectations of net cancellations of 100k to positive sales of 200k and followed last week’s net cancellations of 6.2 million bushels, which reflected a revision from the initially-reported net cancellations of 3.4 mil bu. Net sales over the last two weeks combined were net cancellations of 2.6 mil bu.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week of 328k tonnes (12.9 mil bu) were below market expectations of 500-900k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 29.8 mil bu, last year’s 35.7 mil bu and were a 6-week low. This week’s activity included net reductions in Chinese commitments of 24k tonnes (switched to Taiwan).
ï‚· Old crop wheat sales were net cancellations of 57k tonnes (2.1 mil bu), while market expectations were for net positive sales of 50-200k, with weekly activity featuring net reduction in commitments of 27k tonnes by Japan, 28k Mexico and 36k South Korea. New crop sales of 274k tonnes (10.1 mil bu) were also below expectations of 300-500k tonnes, with China cancelling 130k tonnes in new crop purchases last week.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales of 72k tonnes were at the very bottom of expectations of 75-25k tonnes, while soybean oil sales were net cancellations of 1.5k tonnes vs expectations of 5-30k.
Weather
Brazil saw rains of .50-1†across the northeast 1/3 of Mato Grosso and northern 1/3 of Goias yesterday, with totals of .20-.70†in RGDS and Parana. Brazilian growing regions look to see rains of .35-1†fall with coverage of around 75% in all of their growing regions in the next 5 days. This is largely unchanged, with the exception of Minas Gerais, which previously was expected to be mainly dry. The 6-10 day shows .75-1.5â€+ to fall across around 65% of all Brazilian growing regions, which is an increase for areas south of Parana. Rains of .35-.80†fell across the southeast ¾ of OK and into northern TX yesterday. Starting tomorrow, the majority of KS, OK and TX is expected to see .50-1†rains, with the exception of the panhandles with .25-.75†likely. Nearly all of the Southern Plains is expected to see .50-1†rains in the 6-10 day period. Temps will run below average in all areas for the next ten days, including sub-freezing temps in most of KS, OK and the TX panhandle by the
morning of April 21.