-Wide range of ideas for NOPA soybean crush tomorrow
-Record Brazil April soybean export ideas raised further
-Ukraine considering sunoil export restrictions
-Brazil corn-based ethanol expansion continues
-Frost concerns for French wheat
 NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. The average trade estimate for March soybean crush by NOPA members is 179.2 million bushels with an extremely wide range of ideas of 165.0-189.6 million bushels as market participants’ ideas are mixed on the prospect for continued demand rationing following the unexpected cuts in February vs thoughts the rationing was a short-term phenomenon and a rebound was seen in March. The average estimate reflects a 1.2% decline from last year’s 181.4 million bushels, while the range of ideas indicates anywhere from a 9.0% decline to a 4.5% increase from last year. February NOPA crush was 155.2 million bushels, down 6.7% from last year after Sept-Jan crush averaged 6.1% above year ago levels. The average estimate of end March soybean oil stocks among NOPA members is 1.822 billion pounds, up from 1.757 billion in February, reflecting the seasonal bias for rising stocks into April-May, and compares to 1.899 billion pounds last year March and is in line with average March NOPA stocks over the last five years of 1.856 billion pounds. The range of ideas is 1.717-1.919 billion pounds.
 Brazilian ag exporter association Anec ticked their estimate of the country’s April soybean exports up to 17.15 MMT from previous ideas of 16.3 MMT and would reflect all-time record monthly exports in exceeding last year’s April exports of 14.9 MMT, which is the current record. March soybean exports were 13.5 MMT. Anec sees April corn exports at a seasonally minimal 22k tonnes vs last year’s 6k tonnes and down from 292k in March. Brazilian corn exports usually run at minimal levels through June and then jump sharply during July-Dec.
 Brazilian ethanol industry group Unica said 2020/21 (April-March) corn-based ethanol production rose sharply to 2.57 billion liters (680 mil gallons) from 1.63 bil liters (430 mil gal) the previous year and accounted for nearly 9% of the country’s total ethanol production in the year of 30.36 billion liters (8.0 bil gallons), which was down nearly 9% from the previous year as mills opted to skew production towards sugar. Cornbased ethanol production in 2021/22 could increase by another 25% according to some industry analysts.
 Indonesia’s renewable energy ministry expects the country to consume 9.6 million kiloliters (2.54 billion gallons) of biodiesel in 2022, a modest increase from this year’s estimated 9.2 million kl (2.43 bil gal), with long-term ideas consumption will rise to 14.0 mil kl (3.70 bil gal) by 2030. Separately, an official with the Indonesia Biodiesel Producers Association said it is possible Indonesia could export up to 1.0 mil kl (264 mil gal) of biodiesel in 2021 vs last year’s minimal 28k kl exports.
 There are ideas Ukraine is considering limits on sunflower seed exports for the remainder of the 20/21 (Sept-Aug) marketing year, but reportedly is not considering a ban on sunoil exports. However, there is the possibility licensing requirements and/or quotas may be established for sunoil exports moving forward. APK-Inform estimates 20/21 Ukrainian sunoil production at 6.02 MMT with exports at 5.6 MMT, down solidly from last year’s 7.03 MMT in production and exports of 6.63 MMT.
ï‚· Philippines tendered for 165k tonnes of feed wheat for June-Aug shipment.
ï‚· Matif wheat was higher overnight on frost/freeze damage concerns with temperatures dropping below freezing on a widespread basis for the last few nights.
Weather
The Brazilian growing regions still look to see mainly dry weather in most of Minas Gerais, with rains of .35-1†and 70% coverage the rest of their growing regions in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day sees .75-1.5â€+ to fall across most areas north of Parana, with conditions generally dry from Parana south. Argentina looks mostly dry over the next five days, with 1-2†rains shown for the 6-10 day period. Rains of .45-1†fell from southwest to northeast OK yesterday. Most of KS, OK and TX are expected to see .50-1†starting tomorrow night, with the panhandles of OK and TX seeing .25-.75â€. For the 6-10 day period, the European sees an area of rains of .50-1.5†to fall in the panhandles, the southern 2/3rd of OK and far northern TX, with totals generally less than .25†elsewhere. The GFS sees totals of .50-1.5†to fall in the eastern ½ of KS and northeast 1/3rd of OK, with totals of generally less than .30†in the rest of KS and OK.