-US winter wheat conditions historically average entering spring growing season
-Brazilian soybean harvest in line with average – Mato Grosso complete
-Russian wheat lowest in Egypt tender for new crop
-Western Plains rain ideas pared
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be released Friday, April 9 at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43468.
 Yesterday afternoon’s initial USDA Crop Progress report of the year didn’t reveal any surprises with the winter wheat crop rated 53% good/excellent, exactly in line with a wire service poll of market expectations and below last year’s initial 62% g/e rating. However, conditions are better than at the end of last fall of 46% good/excellent. Overall conditions are right in the middle of historical levels to start the spring growing season being below conditions in 3 of the last 8 years, above 4 of the last 8 years and in line with those of 2017 in early April. HRW specific conditions are right in line with average levels over the last 8 years, while SRW conditions are moderately better than average, but winter white conditions are the worst for early April
in six years.
ï‚· U.S. corn planting is 2% complete, in line with last year and average. Progress across the far southern states is mostly near average with slight delays, with the exception of Arkansas with planting at only 8% vs 25% average. Spring wheat planting is 3% complete vs 3% last year and 2% average.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43463 for full details of yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report.
 Bloomberg put the average trade estimates for 2020/21 U.S. ending stocks in Friday’s WASDE report at: corn 1.379 billion bushels vs 1.502 billion last month, soybeans 118 million vs 120 million last month and wheat 846 million vs 836 million last month. Reuters, which we use for our trade estimate compilation, has not yet published their numbers so we will post our usual summary to Market Insights when available.
ï‚· According to Safras & Mercado, the Brazilian soybean crop is now 76% harvested, in line with average of 77% and compares to 82% last year. Harvest in top-producing Mato Grosso is essentially complete. Planting of the safrinha corn crop is complete, while the 1st corn crop is 65% harvested vs 68% last year and 65% average.
 Strategie Grains slightly trimmed their estimate of the coming EU rapeseed crop to 16.8 MMT from 17.1 MMT previously, but remains up from last year’s 16.25 MMT.
 The lowest offer in Egypt tender for an unspecified amount of wheat for August 1-10 shipment was Russian at $234.00/tonne fob ($252.75 c&f), with traders paying close attention being their first tender for new crop supplies amid Russia’s new permanent export tax structure. There were also several offers of Russian wheat around $235/tonne ($253.13-$253.90 c&f), as well. A single cargo of Ukrainian wheat was offered at $234.25/tonne fob ($253.83 c&f), with several others at $235.30-$235.50.
 China sold 1.588 MMT of the 4.022 MMT (39.5%) of wheat offered at this week’s state reserve auction, up from the previous week’s 25.8% sale rate, but still among the lowest interest levels of auctions in recent months. The average price ticked up to 2,363 yuan/tonne ($360) from 2,354 ($359) the previous week, but was in line with average prices paid over the last 7-8 weeks.
ï‚· Taiwan tendered for 96k tonnes of U.S. wheat for June shipment.
Weather
Rains of 1-2†fell in most of Corrientes, as well as the northern ½ of Santa Fe and Entre Rios, with conditions dry in the rest of the Argentine growing regions yesterday. Widespread 1-2†rains are expected for most areas this week, while the 6-10 day period looks mostly dry.
Rains of .30-1†fell across most of Mato Grosso and Goias yesterday, with an additional .75-1.5â€+ expected in those states this week with dry conditions elsewhere. An area of low pressure still looks to bring rains of .50-1†to the northeast 1/3 of KS, but changes now indicate little in the way of rains for the rest of KS. Totals of .25-.75â€, isolated to 1â€+, look to fall in the eastern 1/3 to ½ of OK and eastern 1/3 of TX. All of these rains will fall by later tonight into tomorrow morning. Dry weather then looks to occur for the rest of the week. The 6-10 day outlook is in better agreement mostly dry conditions for the western ½ of
KS, OK and TX, with totals of .30-.80â€+ in the eastern ½ of those three states.