-USDA Crop Progress this afternoon – WASDE on Friday
-USDA reports new crop SRW sale to unknown
-Malaysian palm oil stocks seen low through 2021
-Decent rains expected in Argentine/US Southern Plains
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be released Friday, April 9 at 11:00 AM CT. The USDA’s first Crop Progress report of the year will be issued this afternoon, providing nationwide winter wheat crop conditions.
ï‚· The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report on April 12. The average trade estimate of end March palm oil stocks is 1.318 MMT (1.191-1.390 MMT range of ideas), up slightly from February stocks of 1.301 MMT, but well below year ago March stocks of 1.730 MMT. March palm oil production is estimated at 1.382 MMT (1.270-1.404 MMT range) vs 1.106 MMT in February and 1.397 MMT last year, while March exports are estimated at 1.119 MMT (1.100-1.200 MMT range) vs 896k tonnes in February and 1.185 MMT last year.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects the country’s palm oil stocks to remain historically low through the end of 2021, holding below 1.5 MMT on a monthly basis for the most part and ending the year around 1.12 MMT vs end 2020 stocks of 1.266 MMT (2.007 MMT end 2019). They expect palm oil futures to remain generally firm, projecting an average of 3,846 ringgit/tonne ($929) during the 1st half of 2021 (benchmark June futures are currently at 3,739 ringgit/tonne), while the MPOB’s extended price view for all of 2021 indicated an expectation for prices to average 3,000 ringgit/tonne ($725)
vs the 2019 average of 2,700 ringgit ($655). Malaysian palm oil production in 2021 is seen at 19.6 MMT vs 19.14 MMT last year, with China importing a total of 6.8 MMT of palm oil in the year (2.8 MMT from Malaysia), with Indian import estimated at 7.5 MMT (3.0 MMT from Malaysia). Total Malaysian palm oil exports in 2021 are expected to tick up marginally to 17.5 MMT from 17.4 MMT last year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 130k tonnes of SRW wheat to unknown for 2021/22 (new crop) delivery this morning.
 Argentina’s corn crop is 13% harvested vs 10% last week, 20% last year and 19% average according to the Ag Secretary. Buenos Aires is 8% complete vs 13% average.
ï‚· Black Sea wheat export values declined again last week with Russian 12.5% protein wheat for April shipment down $12/tonne to $245/tonne fob according to IKAR, with Sovecon quoting prices around $248/tonne, down $5 on the week. Ukraine milling wheat for export declined $9/tonne last week to $245-$251/tonne fob according to APK-Inform. Through the end of March, Ukraine exported 14.4 MMT of wheat, accounting for 82% of the allowed export quota of 17.5 MMT for 2020/21 (July-June). Ukrainian corn export values rose $5/tonne last week to $261-$270/tonne fob.
 Ukrainian wheat conditions remain extremely strong, with 98% of the crop said to be in good condition. Accordingly, APK-Inform sees the wheat crop potentially rising 10% from last year to 27.5 MMT (USDA reflects last year’s crop at 25.5 MMT), with exports of 19.8 MMT vs USDA’s estimated of current marketing year exports of 17.5 MMT. The consultant sees the 2021/22 total grain crop at 73.8 MMT, up 13% from last year.
 Ukraine corn exports during the 1st half of 2020/11 (Oct-March) of 15.9 MMT were down 25% from last year’s 21.2 MMT during same period, with 6.0
MMT exported to China according to APK-Inform.
ï‚· Saudi Arabia bought 295k tonnes of optional-origin hard milling wheat at $271.05/tonne c&f for May-June delivery.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC data showed funds net buyers of 7.4k contracts of corn for the week ended 3/30/21 and are net long 396k contracts. Funds
were net sellers of 21.0k soybeans (net long 142k), 22.9k CBOT wheat (now net short 14.7k), 4.5k KCBT wheat (net long 21.7k), 4.8k MPLS wheat (net
long 10.4k) and 13.1k SBO (net long 80.8k). Funds were small net buyers of 0.6k SBM and are net long 58.2k contracts.
Weather
The Argentine outlook is wetter than ideas heading into the weekend as 1-2†is expected in most areas this week, with only the extreme western areas to
see less than .50†while the 6-10 day period shows an additional 1-2â€+ in the northern ½ of Entre Rios and Santa Fe early in the period, with conditions
dry elsewhere.
An area of low pressure will bring rains of .50-1†to the northeast 1/3 of KS, with totals of .50-1†in the rest of the eastern ½ of KS and eastern ½ of OK
and eastern 1/3 of TX by late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. The 6-10 day outlook is a bit mixed with the European quiet through the weekend
and then by Monday rains of .50-1†are shown for the eastern 1/3 of KS, OK and TX, with quiet weather for the rest of the period. The GFS sees a front to
bring rains of .50-1†to the eastern 2/3 of KS, OK and TX, with totals in the western 1/3 of KS in the .35†range or less.