-Winter wheat conditions mostly improve/hold steady
-Early southern corn planting continues without issue
-Australia declares end to La Nina
-Brazilian ethanol prices under pressure amid COVID lockdowns
-Revised trade estimate summary for tomorrow’s USDA reports
USDA’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43373. A revised summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. NOTE: Wire services issued a correction to the March 1 soybean stocks estimates as one of the survey participants, who previously was the highest estimate, sharply revised their submission lower, narrowing the range of market ideas, as well as lowering the average estimate modestly.
ï‚· Kansas winter wheat conditions improved again last week, now at 50% good/excellent vs 45% g/e a week ago (50% g/e last year) and posting a 14% increase since the 36% g/e rating in early March. OK conditions were mostly unchanged at 61% g/e vs 62% last week (70% g/e last year), as were TX at 28% g/e vs 29% g/e last week (56% g/e last year). In other weekly updates, CO slipped to 28% g/e from 33% previously, while AR improved to 59% g/e from 57% previously and MS jumped to 59% g/e from 49% g/e a week earlier. Being the end of the month, several states provided monthly updates ahead of the start of regular weekly condition reports next Monday. NE conditions of 38% g/e compare to 34% g/e in late Feb (79% g/e last year), SD 31% good (0% exc) vs 41% good (0% exc) late Feb (83% g/e last year) and MT 54% g/e vs 69% late Feb (50% g/e last year). IL SRW conditions improved sharply to 70% g/e vs 46% g/e late Feb (61% g/e last year), KY is now 90% g/e vs 72% g/e late Feb (81% g/e last year), VA 39% g/e vs 26% g/e late Feb (80% g/e last year) and NC 39% g/e vs 32% late Feb (76% g/e last year).
ï‚· For corn planting, TX is now 50% complete vs 38% last week and 46% average, LA 74% vs 52% last week and 64% avg, MS 24% vs 11% last week and 24% avg, and AR 4% vs 2% last week and 13% average.
 According to local meteorologists and crop observers, much of Argentina’s main grain belt saw total rainfall amounts over the last 10 days of 4+ inches, providing an excellent re-charge of soil moisture for the planting of new crop wheat and barley. However, some question the potential benefit for the corn and soybean crops in some locations given the advanced stage of development and earlier damage done by persistent dryness. Argentina’s corn harvest is underway at 10% complete as of last Thursday according to the Ag Secretariat.
 Australia’s weather bureau officially declared the La Nina event over, with the transition to ENSO-neutral conditions expected to result in “average†weather conditions across the country for at least the next three months. The very heavy rains recently and prospects for average
weather in the coming months set up a solid outlook for the next wheat crop as planting gets underway next month.
ï‚· Brazilian ethanol prices remain under significant pressure, falling by 16% in Sao Paulo last week alone, as the country re-imposes lockdowns in an effort to get rampant coronavirus outbreaks under control. The ongoing struggles to control coronavirus in the country are expected to reduce gasoline demand and, accordingly, ethanol demand, for much of the year, prompting cane crushers to remain heavily focused on sugar production at the expense of ethanol production this year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 101k tonnes of corn to unknown for 2020/21 delivery this morning.
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for May shipment, with offers due by today.
Weather
Argentina looks mostly dry over the next 10 days, with temperatures expected to run below average.
Rains of .25-.75†fell in most of Santa Fe and the eastern 2/3 of Parana and Sao Paulo in Brazil yesterday. Rains will be confined to the northern Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days, with totals of 1-2†in Mato Grosso and totals of .25-.75†in the northern 1/3 to ½ of Goias and Minas Gerais, with conditions mainly dry elsewhere.
The U.S. Southern Plains look mostly dry over the next 5 days, while models differ on prospects in the 6-10 day period with decent rains in eastern areas projected by the GFS, while the European is more limited.