NOPA February soybean crush was sharply lower than expected, prompting end February soybean oil stocks to also come in below expectations, but still within recent years’ levels. Today’s data reflects the first actual signs of demand rationing taking place in domestic crush activity.
NOPA reported its members crushed 155.2 million bushels of soybeans in February, sharply below average market expectations of 168.6 million bushels, below the entire range of market ideas of 158.8-175.3 million bushels and a 17-month low going back to September 2019. Moreover, crush among NOPA members for the month was down 6.2% from last year’s 166.3 million bushels and implied U.S.-total crush in February around 164.5 million bushels, 10.8 million bushels less than last year’s nationwide Feb crush of 175.3 million. After setting new respective monthly records since the start of the marketing year, it is hard to see today’s data as anything other than the first signs of demand rationing amid the surge in soybean prices. Based on estimated nationwide crush for February, marketing year to date crush of 1.113 billion bushels would still be up 40 million bushels (3.7%) from last year’s 1.073 billion, but based on the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel annual crush estimate, March-August crush would need to total 1.087 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from last year’s 1.092 billion bushels. In other words, with the pullback in crush in February alone, total crush during the 2nd half of 2020/21 can now run unchanged from last year (no “rationing” needed) and still leave the domestic portion of the balance sheet intact with USDA’s projection.
NOPA reported its members produced 1.816 billion pounds of soybean oil in February vs 1.911 billion pounds last year and 2.173 billion pounds in January, with the average soybean oil yield staying high at 11.70 pounds/bushel vs 11.77 in January and well above last year’s Feb yield of 11.49. NOPA-member soybean oil yields have averaged 11.67 pounds/bushel so far this marketing year vs 11.52 during Oct-Feb last year. Despite the sharp pullback in crush during the month, the historically yield allowed February soybean oil production to still be the 2nd highest in record for the month in available data back to 2001.
NOPA members reported end February soybean oil stocks were 1.757 billion pounds, obviously below average market expectations of 1.839 billion pounds given the unexpectedly low crush, but still within the range of market ideas of 1.650-1.932 billion pounds, but still within the range of February stocks over the five years of 1.752-1.922 billion pounds. Prior to last year’s 1.922 billion pounds, February NOPA soybean oil stocks averaged 1.792 billion pounds over the previous four years. Implied monthly soybean oil “off-take” among NOPA members (Jan stocks + Feb production – Feb stocks) fell to 1.857 billion pounds from 2.073 billion in January and was solidly below last year’s 2.001 billion in February.
NOPA reported its members produced 3.696 million tons of soybean meal in February vs 4.379 million in January and 3.911 million tons last year February, while exporting 838k tons of soybean meal in the month vs 969k tons in January and 763k tons last year February.
