-Soybean sales at top end of expectations, but again with caveat
-Corn sales at very bottom of expectations
-Wheat sales at upper end of expectations
-SBM sales above range of ideas, SBO sales at bottom of ideas
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 3/04/21, were reported at 351k tonnes (12.9 million bushels), putting them at the top end of muted market expectations of 200-350k tonnes (7.3-12.9 mil bu), but once again, a downward revision in last week’s sales to 9.8 million bushels from 12.3 million initially reported artificially inflated this week’s sales. Over the last three weeks, soybean sales have totaled 23.8 million bushels (7.9 million/week average). This week’s activity included new net sales to China of 25k tonnes, as well as the switching of 65k tonnes previously reported as unknown to China. The recent slowdown in sales is much-needed given the constraints of the balance sheet, but still needs to be much more as sales can only average roughly 3 million bushels/week through the end of the marketing year based on the USDA’s 2.250 billion bushel export projection. Total commitments of 2.221 billion bushels compare to 1.259 billion a year ago. New crop sales of 7.8 million bushels brought total commitments for 21/22 to 187 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of only 13 million bushels.
U.S. corn sales last week of 396k tonnes (15.6 mil bu) were at the very bottom of market expectations of 400-750k tonnes, rebounding from the previous week’s atrocious 4.5 million bushels, but massively below last year’s same-week sales of 58.0 million bushels. Over the last three weeks, corn sales have averaged only 12.6 million bushels/week but are still above the roughly 8.6 million/week sales need to average based on the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushel export projection. The slowdown in sales of late is welcomed in context of the notably tightened balance sheet and has given some credence to the USDA’s decision to not raise exports further in recent months, but we continue to see exports exceeding the USDA’s projection in the end. Chinese activity was minimal in the latest week. Total commitments of 2.343 billion bushels compare to 1.107 billion at this time last year. New crop sales of 11.3 million bushels brought 21/22 total commitments to 61.2 million bushels, in line with new crop sales at this time last year of 63.1 million.
U.S. wheat sales of 330k tonnes (12.1 million bushels) were at the upper end of market expectations of 150-350k tonnes and were the best in three weeks, while also being above the roughly 6.2 million bushels/week “needed” based on the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection. While sales have been rather uninspiring of late, the continue to run decent enough to support the USDA’s estimate. Over the last three weeks, wheat sales have averaged 8.8 million bushels/week. Total commitments of 886 million bushels are up 2.1% from last year’s 868 million, exactly in line with the USDA’s projected increase for the year. New crop sales were minimal at 31k tonnes (1.1 mil bu), with 21/22 total commitments now at 32.5 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of only 16.7 million.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 262k tonnes were above market expectations of 100-250k tonnes as, at least in the export arena, SBM continues to be the star performer in terms of the products. Over the last six weeks, SBM sales have averaged a very impressive 249k tonnes/week vs the roughly 125k tonnes/week “needed” based on the USDA’s export projection and last year’s 210k/week average during the same period. Total commitments are up 1% from last year, holding steady with the USDA’s expected increase for the year. On the other hand, soybean oil sales were only 4.9k tonnes again last week, at the bottom of expectations of 5-20k, the 5th consecutive week of sales of 5.5k tonnes or less and again well below the roughly 15.7k tonnes/week needed to reach the USDA’s just-reduced 2.600 billion pound export projection. In fact, total SBO sales over the last five weeks of 18.8k tonnes barely met the current average weekly needed pace of 15.7k. Total commitments are now down 20.4% from last year vs USDA now estimating SBO exports to be down 8.4% on the year. While the market has been paying so much attention to potential demand from the biofuels sector, actual demand in the export sector has been extremely weak of late.
