-Light news/USDA report non-event allow grain markets to pull back
-Good rains expected for much of the Plains
-Malaysian Feb palm oil stocks lower than expected
Following yesterday’s non-event USDA report, grain market news is quite limited this morning, with grain markets all trading solidly lower overnight on the lack of fresh supportive news. Attention will quickly shift to the USDA’s March 31 Grains Stocks report and Prospective Plantings report, but prior to that, NOPA’s monthly crush data due out on Monday will be closely watched for any signs of the needed slowdown starting to take place. Increasing focus on Argentina’s weather is likely over the next several weeks as dryness concerns keep prospects for declining crop ideas alive and well.
ï‚· The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end February palm oil stocks were 1.301 MMT, below average expectations of 1.418 MMT, down slightly from January stocks of 1.327 MMT and below year ago Feb stocks of 1.700 MMT. February palm oil production of 1.106 MMT was also below average expectations of 1.192 MMT, down slightly from 1.126 MMT in January and below year ago Feb production of 1.289 MMT. Moreover, Feb production was the lowest for any month since February 2016. February Malaysian palm oil exports fell to 896k tonnes from 948k in January and 1.090 MMT last year, while also being below market expectations of 953k tonnes. The lower than expected stocks support palm oil futures overnight, pushing benchmark May futures to a new contract high once again.
ï‚· Algeria is believed to have bought 450-510k tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat for April shipment at around $323/tonne c&f. The vast majority is expected to be northern Europe origin, including Germany, Poland and possibly other Baltic States, while some Argentine was viewed as possibly being in the mix, as well.
ï‚· Brazilian ag exporter association Anec updated their ideas for March soybean exports to 13.3-15.5 MMT based on the current vessel lineup vs Feb exports of 2.9 MMT and 10.9 MMT exported last year in March. Anec sees March corn exports of only 136k tonnes vs 821k in Feb and 471k tonnes last year.
Weather
No major changes in the Argentine forecast with mostly dry conditions expected over the next five days, with the exception of generally less than .30†expected for La Pampa and southern Cordoba later tonight. Models remain at odds for the 6-10 day period with the European calling for widespread .60-1.5â€+ ranis in all areas, while the GFS sees less than .30†for most of Buenos Aries and La Pampa, with .50-1†to fall elsewhere. Brazil saw .25-.75â€, with some isolated heavier totals, across most of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and the eastern 1/3 of Parana yesterday. Dry weather looks to occur across most of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana, as well as the southern 1/3 of MGDS and Sao Paulo in the next 5 days, with totals of .25-.75†in the rest of MGDS and Sao Paulo and 1-2†across most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais. The 6-10 day outlook now sees rains of .40-1†in most of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana vs previously dry conditions indicated. Rains of 1-2†are still expected in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions. An area of low pressure will bring rains to most of KS, the eastern 1/3 of OK and most of the Midwest in the next 24-48 hours. Totals look to be in the .50-1†range in KS and MN, with .50-1.5†across the southern ½ of MO, IL, IN and OH. Totals across eastern OK and the remainder of the Midwest will be in the .40†range or less. Another low looks to develop rains in most of KS, OK and the eastern TX panhandle by Friday, with the rains spreading into most of the Midwest over the weekend into Monday. Totals with that activity look to be in the 1-2†range in most of KS, MO and the SW ½ of IA. Totals in the rest of IA, the southern 1/3 of MN, most of IL and the southern ½ of IN look to be in the .50-1†range. Totals in the rest of the Midwest look to be in the .50†range or less. Some of the precip in MN and far northern IA could fall as 3-6†of snow.