-Russian wheat prospects improving
-Ukraine optimistic about 21/22 grain crops
-Export Sales generally disappointing again
-Rains added to Argentine forecast
-Average trade estimate summary for WASDE report
It was another week of mostly disappointing Export Sales numbers, with even the modest snapshot number for soybeans not being what it appeared given a reduction in the previous week’s initially-reported sales (see below). USDA will release the monthly WASDE report next Tuesday. Our pre-report commentary can be found at ttps://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43128 while a summary of the average trade estimates is on the
following page.
 After a mild winter, Russia’s winter grain crops have notably improved from 22% in poor condition in early December to only 7-9% currently according to the national meteorological office Hydrometcentre. At this this time a year ago, 4% of winter crops were in poor condition. Total planted area to winter crops rose 1.1 million hectares (2.7 million acres) from last year’s to 19.3 million hectares (47.7 mil acres).
 A Ukrainian deputy minister cited positive outlooks for 2021 crops, as well, stating winter crops are in excellent condition after a mild winter, while there are early expectations for a strong corn crop. Specifically, he said early ideas on this year’s wheat crop are 29-30 MMT vs last year’s 25.1 MMT, which could allow for exports of 21-22 MMT vs 17.5 MMT this year, while the corn crop is seen rising to at least 34.0 MMT from last year’s 30.3 MMT. Total grain exports could potentially rise to 50-53 MMT from 45.4 MMT in 20/21. Early ideas on oilseed production were less optimistic with sunseed production put at 13.5 MMT vs 14.3 MMT last year, rapeseed at 2.7 MMT vs 2.5 MMT last year and soybeans at 3.1 MMT vs 3.1 MMT last year. If the
strong expectations on grain production play out, there would be no need for any sort of export restrictions in 2021/22.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report on March 10. The average trade estimate of end February Malaysian palm oil stocks is 1.418 MMT (1.317-1.525 MMT range), up modestly from 1.325 MMT in Jan but below last year’s 1.700 MMT, while Feb palm oil production is estimated at 1.192 MMT (1.126-1.500 MMT range) vs 1.127 MMT in January and 1.289 MMT last. February palm oil exports are estimated at 953k tonnes (891k1.300 MMT range) vs 947k tonnes in Jan and 1.082 MMT last year.
ï‚· South Korea bought 68k tonnes of South American or South African corn at $285.79/tonne c&f for June shipment after tendering for 138k tonnes.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43137 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were 334k tonnes (12.3 million bushels), within market expectations of 100-500k tonnes, but appeared better than they actually were as the previous week’s sales were revised down to only 1.1 million bushels from the originally-reported disappointing 6.2 million bushels. Combining the two weeks, sales still averaged a mere 6.7 million bushels in each week. This week’s activity also reflected net reductions in China’s purchases of 62k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week were very disappointing at only 116k tonnes (4.6 million bushels), easily a marketing year low (previous low was prior week’s 17.8 million) and well below market expectations of 400-800k tonnes. While the snapshot numbers included net sales of 1.055 MMT to China, all of it was simply switches from unknown.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week of 219k tonnes (8.1 million bushels) were within market expectations of 100-500k tonnes, but reflected another week of rather modest activity following the previous week’s 6.1 million bushels in net sales.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales were respectable at 187k tonnes, within market expectations of 100-300k tonnes, up modestly from the previous week’s 160k tonnes and again easily meeting the roughly 137k tonnes/week “needed” sales pace based on the USDA’s export projection. On the other hand, soybean oil sales continue to struggle 5.5k tonnes sold last week (0-25k expected), which were actually the best of the last four weeks as a total of 13.9k tonnes of SBO were sold during the period, and were well below the roughly 19k tonnes/week “needed†pace.
Weather
Dry weather dominated Minas Gerais and eastern Goias yesterday, while the rest of Brazilian growing areas as rains of .30-1â€+. Rains of 1-2â€, with some isolated heavier totals, are expected for roughly 95% of all Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days, while the 6-10 day period shows 1-3†north of Parana, with little in the way of rains for Parana, Santa Catarina and RGDS.
In Argentina, dry weather hung on in Buenos Aries and La Pampa yesterday, but unexpected rains of .25-.75†fell across the rest of the Argentine growing regions. Today’s forecast added rains in the 1-5 day period with .25-.75†now indicated with coverage of around 55-60%. Rains are expected to favor Buenos Aries and then up into the northern ½ of Entre Rios/Santa Fe and most of Corrientes. This is a wetter forecast than previously indicated. The 6-10 day outlook is still mixed with the GFS holding onto dry ideas, while the European is dry for most of next week, with some rains of .25-.75†and coverage of
around 60% the end of next week