-Attache ticks Argentine soybean production lower – sees strong crush
-China loan program to support spring ag activities
-Argentine forecast remains mostly dry but some rains possible
The EIA’s weekly ethanol data this morning will be closely watched again with a recovery from last week possible, but yet
potentially still seeing depressed production rates due to the mid-February deep freeze. The USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out next Tuesday, March 9. Our pre-report commentary/analysis will be posted on Market Insights later today.
 The USDA ag attaché in Argentina estimated the soybean crop at 47.5 MMT, slightly below USDA’s official 48.0 MMT and
expressing a bit more pessimistic view than some private estimates of late bumping the crop higher towards 50.0 MMT. The
attaché is expecting a strong push into crush demand for the coming year, looking for 41.0 MMT vs USDA’s 39.0 MMT estimate and up solidly from last year’s 37.6 MMT (USDA 36.9 MMT). Soybean exports are expected to be only 6.0 MMT according to the attaché vs USDA’s 7.0 MMT estimate and down from last year’s 6.7 MMT (10.3 MMT two years ago). We would note the attaché sees farmers continuing to be very tight holders of stocks amid inflationary concerns, pegging nationwide new crop soybean ending stocks at 14.4 MMT, 30% of total production, and even larger than USDA’s 12.0 MMT assumption. This reflects a follow through from old crop in which the attaché sees ending stocks at 14.9 MMT vs USDA’s 12.8 MMT. While accessing those stocks could notably alter the global soybean balance, it comes down to the difference between actual stocks and accessible stocks, and Argentina’s farmer-held soybean stocks are likely not very accessible in the current political climate. On a side note, the attaché said the heavy rains in Brazil this year have allowed water levels on the Parana River to return to normal levels, which will allow Argentine vessels to again load at full capacity, increasing meal loadings by 12-18% vs allowable levels most of the last year.
 The China Development Bank, one of the country’s policy banks, has announced a special loan program of 20 billion yuan ($3.1 billion) to support spring agricultural activities. The loans will be used to ensure funds are available for farmers and the entire ag sector so seed, fertilizer, pesticides, etc., are available where needed. This year’s program reflects a doubling of last year’s firsttime offered 10 billion yuan spring ag support program.
ï‚· March delivery activity saw none of the prior KCBT or MPLS wheat deliveries be re-issued, while there have yet any corn,
soybean, CBOT wheat or soybean oil deliveries in the current cycle. Soybean meal saw 1 contract re-issued.
Weather
Brazil saw .20-.60†across the northern ½ of RGDS, dry weather in Minas Gerais and .30-1†elsewhere yesterday. The forecast
remains the same for the next 5 days with dry conditions expected across most of Minas Gerais and then rains look move in over the weekend, with totals of around 1â€. Rains of around 1†will also fall RGD, while 1-3â€+ are expected in the rest of the Brazilian growing areas. The 6-10 day period continues to show 1-3†north of Parana, with little in the way of rains for Parana, Santa Catarina and RGDS. Argentina was dry yesterday with the exception of .20-.60†in Corrientes. Most of the next 5 days look dry across Argentine but some scattered light amounts are expected as a weak front brings totals of less than .35†tomorrow, while Corrientes may see totals
of .30-1â€. The 6-10 day outlook has turned mixed with the European indicating .25-.75†and coverage of around 60% the end of
next week, but dry conditions until then, while the GFS remains dry for the entire period.