-Modest winter wheat condition decline supportive for overnight price action
-Highest crop insurance rates in years strong indicator for acreage
-Brazil soybean harvest/safrinha corn planting fighting through wetness
-USDA reports new crop corn sale to Japan
-Argentine forecast remains dry
Soybeans and corn continued to work modestly lower overnight following yesterday’s disappointing performance. Wheat found support overnight on the slippage in winter wheat conditions reported by several states, with modest gains posted heading into the day session.
 Crop insurance guarantees will be the highest in 8 years for soybeans and in 7 years for corn at $11.87/bushel and $4.58/bushel, respectively, a 2.59 ratio, and compare to last year’s $9.17 and $3.88. With the high guarantees, farmers will have every incentive to push maximum acreage levels this spring, weather permitting.
ï‚· Several winter wheat producing states have started providing weekly condition updates Monday afternoon. KS conditions slipped to 37% good/excellent from 40% g/e last week and compare to 43% g/e at this time last year, while OK conditions slipped to 46% g/e from 48% g/e last week and compare to 57% g/e last year. TX conditions declined to 28% g/e from 30% last week and compare to 36% g/e last year. In the weeks ahead, more states are likely to begin updating conditions prior to the
resumption of the USDA’s regular full updates Monday afternoons, which will start April 5.
ï‚· Corn planting in Texas is underway, with 3% of the crop in vs 7% average.
 Brazil’s soybean crop is 23% harvested vs 12% last week, 40% last year and 35% average according to Safras & Mercado. Mato Grosso actually made solid progress last week, now 52% complete vs 34% last week, but still behind average of 66%. Parana is only 11% harvested vs 39% average/45% last year. Safrinha corn planting continues to struggle, but is fighting through, with 30% of the crop now in the ground vs 14% last week, but remains well behind average of 64% and last year’s 61%.
ï‚· USDA reported 175k tonnes of corn was sold to Japan for 2021/22, new crop, delivery.
ï‚· Pakistan received offers in its tender for 300k tonnes of wheat for prompt shipment, with the lowest thought to be
$332.44/tonne c&f for Russian, Ukrainian or EU supplies. EU-specific wheat was offered at $335.99/tonne c&f, while Russian was offered at $336.90/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of Argentine corn for LH April-FH May at +210.12 CN1 c&f (~$290/tonne), with the lowest offer for
U.S. corn reportedly at +222.80 CN1 (~$295.20/tonne).
 KCBT March wheat deliveries fell to 77 contracts after yesterday’s sharp jump to 1,288 and are through 2/24/21. MPLS deliveries fell to 115 contracts following yesterday’s 612 contracts put out and are through 2/25/21. There have yet to be any corn, soybean, CBOT wheat or soybean oil deliveries. Soybean meal deliveries of 7 contracts re-circulated.
Weather
Brazil saw.25-.75†across most of Santa Catarina, Parana, Sao Paulo, Goias, the northern ½ of Mato Grosso and eastern ½ of
MGDS yesterday. The 5-day outlook remains consistent with around 1†expected for most of RGDS and 1-3â€+ amounts everywhere else with the exception of Minas Gerais which looks dry. The 6-10 day outlook shows 1-3†from Parana north, with little in the way of rains for Santa Catarina and RGDS which is a drier look for those two states. The Argentine forecast remains dry through the 10-day period with the exception of few showers possible in Corrientes