-Soybean sales lower than expected – easily marketing year low again
-Corn sales lower than expected
-Wheat sales lower than expected
-SBM sales in lower end of expectations, SBO sales minimal again
For the first time in quite a while, this week’s Export Sales data was widely disappointing.
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 2/18/21, were only 168k tonnes (6.2 million bushels), below market expectations of 200-800k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 14.0 million bushels and the 2nd lowest of the 2020/21 marketing year as the seasonal decline in sales activity appears to be occurring in quick fashion. This week’s activity included reported net cancellations by China of 46k tonnes, while sales to unknown reflected switches of nearly 300k tonnes to other destinations, but not necessarily indicative of potential additional reductions in purchases by China. Total commitments of 2.203 billion bushels are still up 78% from last year’s 1.239 billion bushels, with sales still only needing to average a mere 2.4-3.0 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.250 billion bushel export projection. Soybean sales from this point forward last year averaged nearly 19 million bushels/week.
U.S. corn sales last week of 453k tonnes (17.8 million bushels) were also below market expectations of 500k-1.3 MMT, were down from the previous week’s 39.3 million bushels and were easily a marketing year low in “beating” the previous weakest sales of 24.8 million bushels in mid-November. This week’s activity also included net reductions in Chinese commitments 46k tonnes, which appear largely due to the switching of 68k tonnes of sales previously reported as China to Vietnam. Total commitments of 2.323 billion bushels compare to 1.019 billion at this time last year, with sales still only needing to average roughly 9 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 27.3 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales of 168k tonnes (6.2 mil bu) were below expectations of 250-700k tonnes, as well, completing the trifecta, while also reflecting marketing year low sales and a notable slowdown from the 18.5 million bushel/week average sales over the previous four weeks. Total commitments of 866 million bushels are now up only 4% from last year’s 832 million bushels, reflecting a notable slippage in sales relative to last year in recent months as commitments were up more than 12% as recently as early December. Wheat sales need to average roughly 7 million bushels/week from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection, which reflects an expected 2% increase in exports from last year, vs last year’s 11.3 million/week average sales through the end of the marketing year. There was no Chinese activity of note this week.
Soybean meal sales of 160k tonnes were in the lower portion of market expectations of 75-450k tonnes and reflected a notable slowdown in activity from the 296k tonnes/week average over the previous three weeks, but still met the roughly 139k tonnes/week average needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. Sales from this point forward last year averaged 134k tonnes/week. Total commitments are up 1% from last year, in line with the USDA’s annual projection. Soybean oil sales were minimal again at 4.4k tonnes (5-30k expected), as combined sales over the last three weeks of 8.4k tonnes were less the average weekly sales needed of nearly 19k tonnes based on the USDA’s 2.750 billion pound export projection. While a few strong sales weeks can go a long way to improving the picture, this is a situation that will needs close attention given the tightening SBO balance sheet and strong price gains of late. SBO total commitments are now down 14% from last year vs USDA projecting exports down only 3% on the year.
