-Soybean sales higher than expected
-Corn sales with expectations
-Wheat sales higher than expected
-SBM sales within expectations/SBO small net cancellations
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 2/04/21, were solid again at 805k tonnes (29.6 million bushels), beating market expectations of 300-750k tonnes and were little-changed from the previous week’s 30.2 million bushels. More importantly, though, we continue to wait for the expected and grossly-needed sharp slowdown in sales as we estimate soybean sales can only average roughly 3 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year through August in order to not exceed the USDA’s 2.250 billion bushel export projection, while the balance sheet can ill-afford to see happen. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of 329k tonnes. However, USDA said 296k tonnes were late reported, meaning they were not made within this week’s reporting period, occurring at some earlier point in time. Without the late-reported sales, actual new sales to China for the week were only 33k tonnes. Nonetheless, total commitments of 2.185 billion bushels now compare to last year’s 1.211 billion and reflect 97% of the USDA’s annual export projection. New crop sales this week were 179k tonnes (6.6 mil bu), 66k China/65k unknown, bringing 2021/22 total sales to 163 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of only 12 million bushels.
U.S. corn sales last week of 1.449 MMT (57.0 million bushel) were within market expectations of 800k-1.4 MMT, obviously declining from the previous week’s record sales of 293 million bushels, but continuing the rather solid pace of late which averaged 62.0 million bushels/week over the three weeks prior to last week’s massive sales. More importantly and similar to the situation in soybeans, though, corn sales need to slow dramatically, even with widespread expectations for 2020/21 exports to prove solidly above USDA’s 2.600 billion bushel export projection. Based on their current estimate, corn sales would only be able to average roughly 10.3 million bushels/week through the end of August. For reference, annual exports of 2.800 billion bushels would allow for average sales of roughly 17.2 million bushels/week. This week’s activity included a minor 16k tonnes in sales to China, while Japan led the way with 520k tonnes, followed by Mexico with 405k. Total commitments of 2.266 billion bushels compare to 935 million bushels last year and represent 87% of the USDA’s export projection.
U.S. wheat sales last week were respectable at 591k tonnes (21.7 mil bu), beating market expectations of 200-450k tonnes and followed the previous week’s solid sales of 23.6 million bushels. The largest sales of the week were to unknown of 167k tonnes, followed by Mexico with 111k. Total commitments of 845 million bushels are holding onto a 5% gain relative to last year’s 805 million, while the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection reflects an estimated 2% increase from last year. Wheat sales will need to average roughly 7.5 million bushels/week through the end of May to reach the USDA’s annual estimate vs last year’s 11.6 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 264k tonnes were within market expectations of 150-350k tonnes but, more importantly, continue to run solidly better than the average “needed” pace of 145k tonnes in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. Over the last nine weeks, SBM sales have averaged 244k tonnes/week, comparable to last year’s 255k/week during the same period, while last year’s sales went on to average 136k tonnes/week from this point forward. SBM total commitments are down less than 1% from last year, while USDA is currently estimating annual exports up 1% for the year. Soybean oil sales last week were minor net cancellations of 0.5k tonnes as there was essentially no sales activity for the week whatsoever (+3.2k Colombia, +0.5k Dominican Republic, -4.4k Guatemala) while expectations were for sales of 5-30k tonnes. SBO total commitments are now down 9% from last year vs USDA estimating annual exports down 3%, with sales needing to average roughly 18k tonnes/week from this point forward vs last year’s 19.6k/week.
