-USDA reports another huge corn sale to China
-USDA Oilseed Crushings report Monday
-Russian wheat export ideas raised
-India setting plans to sharply increase oilseed production
ï‚· USDA reported another huge corn sale to China this morning of 2.108 MMT, all for 2020/21 delivery, as well as 132k tonnes of new crop soybeans. This brings their reported corn purchases over the last four days to 5.8 MMT and official sales on the books to near 18 MMT (likely 22+ MMT accounting for sales to unknown).
ï‚· Monday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseed Crushings report. The average estimate of U.S. soybean crush in
December is 193.9 million bushels (192.0-195.0 million range of ideas), a record for the month, vs 191.0 million in November
and 184.7 million last year. The average estimate reflects nationwide crush 5.9% above NOPA-member crush for the month,
exactly in line with the average deviation over the last four months, but a bit larger than the 5.5% difference in November. If
Dec crush is in line with expectations, 2020/21 marketing year to date crush of 753 million bushels would be up 44 million
bushels from last year’s 709 million, leaving Jan-Aug crush needing to total 1.447 billion bushels vs last year’s 1.456 billion based on the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel annual estimate. Relative to the solid 6% year-over-year increase in crush so far, a
considerable demand rationing job is at hand for the rest of the year. End December U.S. soybean oil stocks are estimated at
2.254 billion pounds (2.200-2.358 billion range), up from 2.118 billion in November and last year’s 2.134 billion pounds. The
average estimate reflects stocks 32.7% above NOPA-member stocks vs the 35.9% difference in November and 32.3% average
difference over the last three months.
 Sovecon raised their estimate of 2020/21 Russian wheat exports to 37.9 MMT from 36.3 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 33.8 MMT. They expect January exports near 3.3 MMT vs 4.7 MMT in December and 2.1 MMT last year. Based on their annual estimate, Feb-June exports would total roughly 9.2 MMT vs 10.6 MMT last year.
 India is working on plans to considerably increase oilseed production over the next five years in order to potentially dramatically lower veg oil imports, which have sharply risen in recent years and are now the country’s third largest imported product behind crude oil and gold. The plan would subsidize farmers to switch from over-produced wheat into oilseeds, reportedly mainly rapeseed and sunflower, with the goal of raising total oilseed production to more than 47 MMT from around 37-38 MMT currently. As a result, total vegoil production could rise to around 18 MMT from 10 MMT currently, putting a major dent in vegoil oil imports, which have been running around 15 MMT annually of late.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange slightly lowered their estimate of the Argentine soybean crop to 46.0 MMT from 46.5 MMT previously and compares to USDA last at 48.0 MMT and last year’s 48.8 MMT.
ï‚· The EU Commission raised their estimate of 2020/21 EU-27 soft wheat exports to 26.0 MMT from 24.0 MMT previously and
slightly lowered estimated corn imports to 18.5 MMT from 19.0 MMT previously.
ï‚· South Korea bought 60k tonnes of optional-origin soybean meal for August 10 arrival at $501.95/tonne c&f, while passing on a tender for September 5 arrival.